FORECAST OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN 2023 THROUGH THE PRISM OF TRANSFORMATIONS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
The relevance of the research topic is determined by the continuing complexity of the development of the national economy in a situation where the collective West is waging an economic sanctions war against Russia as a component of a hybrid war that reflects the general crisis problems of the development of the world economy. The purpose of the presented studies is to predict scenarios for the development of the national economy in 2023 through the prism of the transformations taking place in the global economy. The scientific novelty of the presented research lies in the substantiation of the fact that despite the opportunities provided by Western sanctions for the intensive development of the high-tech non-resource sector of the national economy, the most likely scenario for the development of the Russian economy will be the preservation of an export-oriented raw material model aimed at changing the spatial vectors of redirecting logistics flows. The practical significance of the results obtained lies in demonstrating that if the domestic economy does not abandon the model of state quasi-monopoly capitalism of a raw material orientation, then Russia will not only fail to solve the problem of development at rates above the world average while maintaining macroeconomic stability, but will also not be able to maintain a level of development relatively own results of previous years.

Keywords:
development forecast, Russian economy, 2023, transformations in the global economy
Text
Publication text (PDF): Read Download
References

1. «Glubinnomu narodu» volnovat'sya ne o chem. Chto budet s rossiyskoy ekonomikoy v 2023 godu. https://www.e1.ru/text/business/2023/01/13/71969768/

2. Kennedy, David M. Freedom from Fear : the American People in Depression and War, 1929-1945: [angl.]. - New York; Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001. - 988 p.

3. SIPRI: mirovye oboronnye rashody dostigli rekordnoy summy za vosem' let. https://ria.ru/20230424/raskhody-1867244194.html

4. VVP Armenii v 2022 godu vyros na 14,2%. https://www.interfax.ru/business/884025

5. VVP Rossii v 2023 godu: prognoz glavnogo pokazatelya ekonomiki. https://bankstoday.net/last-articles/vvp-rossii-2023

6. VVP Rossii v 2023 godu: prognoz glavnogo pokazatelya ekonomiki. https://finance.rambler.ru/economics/49912679/?utm_content=finance_media&utm_medium=read_more&utm_source=copylink

7. Vsemirnyy bank predrek snizhenie VVP Rossii na 3,3% po itogam 2023 goda. https://m.dzen.ru/news/story/Vsemirnyj_bank_predrek_snizhenie_VVP_Rossii_na33_poitogam_2023_goda--86b8bfd0117270a56890152aae184740?lang=ru&from=main_portal&fan=1&stid=ZXkIAH2U4XiYdpHahABD&t=1673373280&persistent_id=1362160747&story=f811ccaa-7a54-5ccc-be7d-5487bf12e9ed&issue_tld=ru&utm_referrer=m.dzen.ru

8. Gruzopotok po MTK Azovo-Chernomorskogo basseyna mozhet vyrasti na chetvert'. https://www.korabel.ru/news/comments/gruzopotok_po_mtk_azovo-chernomorskogo_basseyna_mozhet_vyrasti_na_chetvert.html

9. Denis Voronenkov: «Neobhodim monitoring vozmozhnyh pravonarusheniy na krupnyh gosproektah». Prokuratura pri proverke stroitel'stva kosmodroma «Vostochnyy» vyyavila hischeniya na 7,5 milliarda rubley. https://www.justmedia.ru/news/russiaandworld/denis_voronenkov__neobhodim_monitoring_vozmozhnyh_pravonarushenij_na_krupnyh_gosproektah

10. Deficit professionalov - tret'ya beda Rossii. https://nb159.ru/rubric/trends/deficit-professionalov-tretya-beda-rossii/

11. Dmitriy Peskov. Pochemu dlya Rossii vazhen tehnologicheskiy suverenitet. https://www.rbc.ru/newspaper/2022/06/10/62a0e95b9a79472d8b713207

12. Dorogaya peredacha. Dva desyatka regionov podnyali setevoy energotarif dlya biznesa sverh predel'nogo urovnya. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5784554

13. Evraziyskiy bank razvitiya nazval riski dlya ekonomiki Rossii v 2023 godu. https://www.rbc.ru/economics/29/11/2022/6385b9fb9a79470a0b4f9bea

14. Zapretit' vse: Zapad grozit Rossii total'noy tovarnoy blokadoy. https://svpressa.ru/economy/article/370066/

15. Importozameschenie v avtoprome RF: uzhe ne poluchilos'. Pomozhet li «cap-carap»? https://www.drom.ru/info/misc/87398.html

16. Kak v Rossii snizilos' chislo migrantov. Infografika V 2022 godu migracionnyy pritok v Rossiyu sokratilsya do 61,9 tys. chelovek. https://www.rbc.ru/society/16/04/2023/643801ec9a7947a4340a3a8c

17. Kak pritok rossiyan izmenil ekonomiku Gruzii. https://www.rbc.ru/politics/12/11/2022/635a2fb09a79477d898b715b

18. Kitayskie tovary zamenyayut produkciyu zapadnyh stran. https://rg.ru/2022/11/01/kitajskie-tovary-zameniaiut-produkciiu-zapadnyh-stran.html

19. Massovyy pereezd rossiyan ukrepil ekonomiki i nacional'nye valyuty Armenii i Gruzii. https://www.forbes.ru/biznes/480913-massovyj-pereezd-rossian-ukrepil-ekonomiki-i-nacional-nye-valuty-armenii-i-gruzii

20. Minekonomrazvitiya priznalo novuyu strategiyu razvitiya avtoproma ot Minpromtorga syroy. https://www.vedomosti.ru/auto/articles/2022/09/21/941782-minekonomrazvitiya-priznalo-strategiyu-avtoproma-siroi

21. Naselenie Rossii za god sokratilos' na 555 tys. chelovek. https://www.rbc.ru/economics/01/02/2023/63da428b9a7947e741363c53

22. Neupravlyaemaya transformaciya: kak rossiyskaya ekonomika budet menyat'sya v 2023 godu. https://www.forbes.ru/mneniya/482900-neupravlaemaa-transformacia-kak-rossijskaa-ekonomika-budet-menat-sa-v-2023-godu

23. Plan meropriyatiy po importozamescheniyu v avtomobil'noy promyshlennosti Rossiyskoy Federacii. Utverzhden prikazom Minpromtorga Rossii ot 6 iyulya 2021 g. N 2468. https://frprf.ru/download/plan-importozameshcheniya-v-atomobiilnoy-promyshlennosti.pdf

24. Prognoz social'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiyskoy Federacii na 2023 god i na planovyy period 2024 i 2025 godov. https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/directions/makroec/prognozy_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya/prognoz_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya_rossiyskoy_federacii_na_2023_god_i_na_planovyy_period_2024_i_2025_godov.html

25. Putin prizval ukreplyat' tehnologicheskiy suverenitet. https://ria.ru/20221215/suverenitet-1838931905.html

26. Rekord ne pobit: svezhaya statistika po vyezdam rossiyan za rubezh za III kvartal 2022 goda. https://hikeit.ru/news/russian-border-statistics

27. Rossii predskazany shest' vazhneyshih ekonomicheskih sobytiy v 2023 godu. Esche neskol'ko let nazad oni predstavlyalis' fantasticheskimi. https://www.mk.ru/economics/2022/12/27/rossii-predskazany-shest-vazhneyshikh-ekonomicheskikh-sobytiy-v-2023-godu.html

28. Rossiya pokazala, chto torgovat' mozhno bez dollara, zayavila kongressvumen. https://ria.ru/20230130/dollar-1848282965.html

29. Rubl' prodolzhaet padenie: v chem prichina i chto podorozhaet v pervuyu ochered' v Rossii. https://www.kp.ru/daily/27488.5/4745143/

30. S nachala 2022 goda iz Rossii uehali i ne vernulis' bolee 500 tysyach rossiyan - The Bell. https://vc.ru/migrate/574684-s-nachala-2022-goda-iz-rossii-uehali-i-ne-vernulis-bolee-500-tysyach-rossiyan-the-bell

31. Sankcii protiv Rossii gotovili do SVO - priznanie glavy Evrokomissii. https://crimea.ria.ru/20230218/sanktsiyam-protiv-rossii-gotovili-do-svo--priznanie-glava-evrokomissii-1127066009.html

32. Skol'ko rossiyan pokinulo stranu posle 24 fevralya i pochemu oni uezzhayut. https://www.kp.ru/daily/27403.3/4598843/

33. Strategiyu razvitiya rossiyskogo avtoproma priznali somnitel'noy. https://lenta.ru/news/2022/09/21/strategi/

34. Strategiya razvitiya avtoproma Rossii do 2035 goda: razmyshleniya vokrug i okolo. https://www.drom.ru/info/misc/88792.html

35. Tebekin A.V. Analiz dinamiki i perspektiv razvitiya modeley sistem logisticheskogo servisa 1PL-7PL. // Vestnik Moskovskogo finansovo-yuridicheskogo universiteta MFYuA. 2022. № 3. S. 179-189.

36. Tebekin A.V. Analiz dinamiki razvitiya ekonomiki g. Moskvy s poziciy neravnomernosti prostranstvennogo razvitiya ekonomiki strany / A.V. Tebekin // Regional'naya ekonomika i upravlenie: elektronnyy nauchnyy zhurnal. - №2 (58), 2019. - S. 60-69.

37. Tebekin A.V. Analiz trendov mirovogo nauchno-tehnologicheskogo razvitiya v sfere transportnyh sredstv i logisticheskih sistem. // Zhurnal tehnicheskih issledovaniy. 2023, №1, s.28-42.

38. Tebekin A.V. Istoriya razvitiya menedzhmenta kak nauki v 1940-e gody i ee znachenie dlya resheniya sovremennyh problem upravleniya / A.V. Tebekin // Zhurnal issledovaniy po upravleniyu. 2018. T. 4. №8. - S. 1-8.

39. Tebekin A.V. Masshtabnye problemy mirovogo ekonomicheskogo krizisa 2020-h godov skvoz' prizmu postulatov ekonomicheskoy teorii. // Zhurnal ekonomicheskih issledovaniy. 2023. T. 9. № 1. S. 3-16.

40. Tebekin A.V. Prichiny neudach i neispol'zovannye perspektivy realizacii ekonomicheskih Kosyginskih reform. // Zhurnal istoricheskih issledovaniy. 2017. T. 2. № 2. S. 14-30.

41. Tebekin A.V. Ekonomicheskie agenty v sovremennoy rossiyskoy ekonomike. // Innovacii i investicii. 2011. № 1. S. 2-4.

42. Tebekin A.V., Allayarova N.I. Ekonomiko-matematicheskaya model' ocenki eksporta, vklyuchaya faktor eksportnogo potenciala gosudarstva. // Zhurnal issledovaniy po upravleniyu. 2023. T.9. №1. S. 3-13.

43. Tebekin A.V., Mitropol'skaya-Rodionova N.V., Horeva A.V. Teoreticheskaya model' novogo industrial'nogo obschestva vtorogo pokoleniya i problemy prakticheskogo voploscheniya noonomiki. // Teoreticheskaya ekonomika. 2021. № 3 (75). S. 59-70.

44. Tri scenariya razvitiya ekonomiki Rossii v 2023 godu: horoshiy, plohoy i po-nabiullinski. https://dzen.ru/a/Y7FF5BtNdHLyLcgR

45. FSB raskryla chislo vyezdov rossiyan za granicu. Kak mobilizaciya izmenila napravleniya poezdok. https://www.rbc.ru/society/05/11/2022/6363d2d49a794742e4a5e6cb

46. Chem grozit Rossii 11-y paket sankciy: ekspert dal otvet. Zapad riskuet vstupit' v ekonomicheskuyu voynu so vsem ostal'nym mirom. https://www.mk.ru/economics/2023/04/06/chem-grozit-rossii-11y-paket-sankciy-ekspert-dal-otvet.html

47. Chto soderzhitsya v 10-m pakete sankciy ES protiv Rossii? https://www.bfm.ru/news/519955

48. Ekspert raz'yasnila neobhodimost' strukturnoy perestroyki ekonomiki Rossii. https://iz.ru/1426043/2022-11-15/ekspert-raziasnila-neobkhodimost-strukturnoi-perestroiki-ekonomiki-rossii

49. Eksperty nazvali sem' trendov 2023 goda v ekonomike Rossii. https://www.rbc.ru/economics/22/03/2023/6419b67b9a79478e0b03f226)

50. Eksport i import: zhizn' v novyh usloviyah. https://plus.rbc.ru/news/631359b67a8aa98521ceb3a2

Login or Create
* Forgot password?