Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov (Department of Socio-Cultural Design and Development of Territories, professor)
Moskva, Moscow, Russian Federation
UDC 336
The relevance of this study is determined by the significant impact of changes in fiscal policy in the current context of national economic development. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of structural changes in fiscal policy in 2026, including an increase in the VAT rate to 22%, on the behavior of key investor groups and debt sustainability, using official budget projections and empirical data for 2023–2025. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in the presentation of a comprehensive institutional and quantitative analysis of the Russian federal loan bond (OFZ) market in 2026 compared to 2025 parameters, using an adapted version of E. de Soto's "vicious circle" model, integrated with scenario modeling of returns, risk assessment (VaR), and duration analysis. The result was a formalized channel model of the OFZ market's impact on federal budget execution, a quantitative assessment of liquidity and demand concentration risks, and the presentation of optimization models for portfolio management for the government and institutional investors. The practical significance of this work lies in the formulation of practical recommendations for coordinating fiscal and monetary policy, developing a secondary market, and minimizing institutional barriers to ensuring fiscal sustainability.
model analysis, OFZ market, federal budget, tax burden, de Soto's "vicious circle" models, portfolio management, fiscal sustainability
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