Probabilistic model of the route passage by a vehicle

Dmitriy Achkasov; Konstantin V. Zolnikov; Ivan I. Romanov

VAK Russia 2.3.7 UDC 004.9

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PROBABILISTIC MODEL OF THE ROUTE PASSAGE BY A VEHICLE Probabilistic model of the route passage by a vehicle

АА Аа

Published in Modeling of systems and processes · Volume 19, Issue 2, 2026 · Pages 7–14 · Rubric: Tehnicheskie nauki

Received: 05.07.2026 Accepted: 07.09.2026 Published: 07.09.2026

Authors

Dmitriy Achkasov

Konstantin V. Zolnikov

Ivan I. Romanov

Dmitriy Achkasov

Voronezh State University of Forestry and Technologies named after G.F. Morozov master proizvodstvennogo obucheniya

Konstantin V. Zolnikov

Voronezh State University of Forestry and Technologies named after G.F. Morozov Russian Federation

Ivan I. Romanov

ABSTRACT

In the process of development and operation of transport vehicles, such as automobiles, aircraft, ships, etc., simulation modeling is often used to assess the suitability of certain technical solutions. This approach is particularly relevant when it is necessary to analyze the behavior of a complex system under conditions of uncertainty, where full-scale testing is impractical. This article simulates a vehicle's route on a map taking into account various external influences. The dynamics of the vehicle's state change are simulated based on specified failure patterns of individual components and subsystems, as well as considering the impact of various external factors on these components and subsystems. This simulation model can be used for an integral assessment of the ability to complete a route, the reliability of a vehicle when interacting with adverse external factors, identifying critical sections of the route where the probability of failure is highest, and comparing different configurations of installed equipment. The model is intended for specialists in the design and operation of various technical systems requiring high reliability. The simulation results can be used to optimize maintenance and improve operational safety.

KEYWORDS

simulation modeling, reliability, subsystem failures, route simulation, model of external influencing factors, suitability assessment

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GOST

Achkasov D. A., Zolnikov K. V., Romanov I. I. Probabilistic model of the route passage by a vehicle // Modeling of systems and processes. 2026. no. 2. pp. 7-14. URL: https://naukaru.ru/en/nauka/publications/article/6a9c166d32807fdbab874daf/probabilistic-model-of-the-route-passage-by-a-vehicle/view. (Date of access 17.09.2026).

MLA

Dmitriy Achkasov, Zolnikov K. V., Romanov I. I.. "Probabilistic model of the route passage by a vehicle." Modeling of systems and processes 19.2 (2026): 7-14. URL: https://naukaru.ru/en/nauka/publications/article/6a9c166d32807fdbab874daf/probabilistic-model-of-the-route-passage-by-a-vehicle/view.

APA

Achkasov D. A., Zolnikov K. V., Romanov I. I. (2026). Probabilistic model of the route passage by a vehicle. Modeling of systems and processes, 19(2), 7-14. URL: https://naukaru.ru/en/nauka/publications/article/6a9c166d32807fdbab874daf/probabilistic-model-of-the-route-passage-by-a-vehicle/view

Chicago

Dmitriy Achkasov, Zolnikov K. V., Romanov I. I.. "Probabilistic model of the route passage by a vehicle." Modeling of systems and processes 19, no. 2 (2026): 7-14. URL: https://naukaru.ru/en/nauka/publications/article/6a9c166d32807fdbab874daf/probabilistic-model-of-the-route-passage-by-a-vehicle/view.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Achkasov D. A., Zolnikov K. V., Romanov I. I. | title = Probabilistic model of the route passage by a vehicle | journal = Modeling of systems and processes | year = 2026 | volume = 19 | issue = 2 | pages = 7-14 | url = https://naukaru.ru/en/nauka/publications/article/6a9c166d32807fdbab874daf/probabilistic-model-of-the-route-passage-by-a-vehicle/view }}

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PROBABILISTIC MODEL OF THE ROUTE PASSAGE BY A VEHICLE Probabilistic model of the route passage by a vehicle

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