System Model of Long-Term Technical and Economic Development

Leonid Basovskiy; Elena Basovskaya

doi:10.12737/22035

SYSTEM MODEL OF LONG-TERM TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT System Model of Long-Term Technical and Economic Development

АА Аа

Published in Scientific Research and Development. Economics · Pages 18–35 · Rubric: Сommon questions

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12737/22035

Received: 11.10.2016 Accepted: 18.10.2016 Published: 18.10.2016 Language of publication: RUS

Authors

Leonid Basovskiy

Elena Basovskaya

Leonid Basovskiy

Academic degree: doctor of technical sciences

Science rang: professor

Leo Tolstoy Tula State Pedagogical University Head · Department of Economics and Management

Elena Basovskaya

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Leo Tolstoy Tula State Pedagogical University Associate Professor · Department of Economics and Management

ABSTRACT

The results of the research of dissemination of technical and economic paradigms in developed economies are given. A system model of long-term technical and economic development is developed. The model assumes the simultaneous existence in the economy of several subsystems of different technical and economic paradigms. Each techno-economic paradigm is a new stage of development and different from the previous paradigm of higher productivity. Each subsequent industrial techno-economic paradigm provides higher productivity due to higher capital intensity and energy intensity of production. In the post-industrial techno-economic paradigms the higher performance is provided at a lower capital intensity and energy intensity of production due to a higher volume of information used. Beginning, transition to domination, the beginning of the withering away of each paradigm is accompanied by the formation of an upward half-wave of Kondratieff cycle. Econometric models of Kondratieff cycles and econometric models of real GDP per capita is obtained, provided technical and economic paradigms in developed countries. The fourth techno-economic paradigm provides the real per capita GDP value from 1929 to 3258 dollars Gehry-Hemis 1990. The fifth techno-economic paradigm provides a real GDP per capita value of 11,606 to 12,883 dollars Gehry-Hemis 1990. The sixth techno-economic paradigm provides a real GDP per capita value of 22 360 to 28 385 dollars Gehry-Hemis 1990.

KEYWORDS

techno-economic paradigm, GDP per capita, econometric models, human capital, new technologies.

Text

Работа выполнена при поддержке гранта РГНФ № 15-02-00369.

В настоящее время разработано и обсуждается множество положений теории долгосрочного экономического развития, связанных с формированием циклов Кондратьева [1–3], и сменяющих друг друга технико-экономических парадигм [4–7]. Известные теоретические положения и результаты исследований [1–7] позволяют на основе системного подхода и с использованием идей Н. Винера [8] предложить обобщение известных теоретических положений в форме системной модели долгосрочного технико-экономического развития.

Системную модель долгосрочного технико-экономического развития индустриальных и постиндустриальных экономических систем предлагается построить следующим образом.

Экономическая система, например, мировая экономика, экономика страны, региона, фирмы, домохозяйства состоит из нескольких подсистем. Каждая из этих подсистем воплощает определенную технико-экономическую парадигму — определенный технологический уклад. Совокупность этих подсистем обеспечивает производство определенного уровня потребляемых благ, определенный уровень душевого дохода.

1. Kondratieff N. The Long Waves in Economic Life. Martino Fine Books, 2014. 28 p.

2. Narkus S. Long-waves theory. Universities Oslo, 2012. 80 p.

3. Nefiodow L. The Sixth Kondratieff: A New Long Wave in the Global Economy. Createspace Independent Pub, 2014. 264 p.

4. Glaz´ev S. Strategija operezhajushhego razvitija rossijskoj jekonomiki v uslovijah global´nogo krizisa [The strategy of the advanced development of the Russian economy in the global crisis]. Moscow, Jekonomika Publ. 2010. 287 p.

5. Perez, C. Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages. Elgar Publishing, 2003. 224 p.

6. Maevskij V. Vvedenie v jevoljucionnuju makrojekonomiku [Introduction to evolutionary macroeconomics]. Moscow, Japonija segodnja Publ. 1997, p. 106.

7. Basovskaya E., Basovskiy L. Efficiency of Technological Modes in the Economy of the United Kingdom. Ekonomika [Economics]. 2015, V. 3, I. 6, pp. 13-20. DOI:https://doi.org/10.12737/16671.

8. Wiener, N. Cybernetics, Second Edition: or the Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine. Second edition Edition, 1965. 212 p.

9. Leontief, W. Essays in Economics: Theories, Theorizing, Facts, and Policies Paperback. Transaction Publishers, 1985. 423 p.

10. Schumpeter J. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New York: Harper & Brothers. 1942. 381.

GOST

Basovskiy L. E., Basovskaya E. N. System Model of Long-Term Technical and Economic Development // Scientific Research and Development. Economics. 2016. no. 5. pp. 18-35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12737/22035. (Date of access 16.09.2026).

MLA

Leonid Basovskiy, Basovskaya E. N.. "System Model of Long-Term Technical and Economic Development." Scientific Research and Development. Economics 4.5 (2016): 18-35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.12737/22035.

APA

Basovskiy L. E., Basovskaya E. N. (2016). System Model of Long-Term Technical and Economic Development. Scientific Research and Development. Economics, 4(5), 18-35. https://doi.org/10.12737/22035

Chicago

Leonid Basovskiy, Basovskaya E. N.. "System Model of Long-Term Technical and Economic Development." Scientific Research and Development. Economics 4, no. 5 (2016): 18-35. https://doi.org/10.12737/22035.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Basovskiy L. E., Basovskaya E. N. | title = System Model of Long-Term Technical and Economic Development | journal = Scientific Research and Development. Economics | year = 2016 | volume = 4 | issue = 5 | pages = 18-35 | doi = 10.12737/22035 }}

Copy

Export: BibTeX EndNote RefMan RusMARC

SYSTEM MODEL OF LONG-TERM TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT System Model of Long-Term Technical and Economic Development

Confirmation