Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov (Department of Socio-Cultural Design and Development of Territories, Professor)
Moskva, Moscow, Russian Federation
Samara, Samara, Russian Federation
The relevance of the presented study is determined by the fact that in modern complex geopolitical conditions with the growth of the intensity of changes in market conditions, the need to analyze the inherent risks and uncertainties from the point of view of the development of the national economy increases. This applies to all areas of the national economy, including energy, which is traditionally one of the basic ones in the structure of the country's exports. In complex modern geopolitical and economic conditions, the need to develop criteria for assessing the effectiveness of options for the strategic development of the export potential of the Russian Federation in the field of energy resources increases. The purpose of the presented study is to substantiate the criterion for determining a rational option for a strategy for developing the export potential of a state in the energy sector, formed on the basis of a scenario analysis of the development of the global energy market in modern geopolitical and economic conditions. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in the formation of a new criterion for determining a rational option for the strategy for developing the export potential of the Russian Federation in the energy sector, taking into account the expected energy transitions, based on the search for the extremum (maximum) of the synthesized function, taking into account: scenarios for the development of the world energy market, the share values of various types of energy sources in the world market and the difference in revenue and costs for each type of energy sources. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of their use in forming a strategy for developing the export potential of the Russian Federation in the energy resources sector, taking into account the dynamics of energy transitions.
criteria, definition of a rational option, development strategies, export potential of the state, energy resources sector
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