The paper deals with the methods and approaches of analysis and forecasting of labor resources dynamics and its structure. Predictive and analytical tools to study the current and future dynamics of the labor demand and labor supply in the Russian economy taking in account the process of labor force demand and its supply adjustment are offered. Opportunities for further development and improvement of methods and approaches are discussed.
forecast, analysis, employment, labor market, modeling, balance, complex approach, labor force, labor resources.
Прогнозно-аналитические исследования численности и структуры трудовых ресурсов, рабочей силы имеют давнюю историю и традиционно занимают важное место в проводимых в Институте народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН (ИНП РАН) исследованиях. В настоящей статье рассматриваются основные методы и подходы к анализу и прогнозу динамики сферы занятости и рынка труда в отечественной экономике, получившие свое развитие в рамках проводимых ИНП РАН комплексных исследований в области прикладного макроэкономического прогнозирования.
Воспроизводство и использование трудовых ресурсов в плановой экономике: опыт анализа и прогнозирования. Повышение эффективности использования трудовых ресурсов как проблема социально-экономического развития страны традиционно находилась в центре внимания теоретических и прикладных научных разработок советского периода, в том числе и в области прикладного прогнозирования. Оптимальное межотраслевое распределение рабочей силы — одно из необходимых условий решения названной проблемы. При моделировании межотраслевых взаимодействий вопросам межотраслевого распределения рабочей силы уделялось достаточно большое внимание [9, 35]. Отличительной особенностью соответствующих построений являлось то, что при оценке отраслевого спроса на рабочую силу в качестве дополнительного ограничения учитывалась иерархия отраслей экономики при распределении рабочей силы.
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