The purpose of this study was evaluation of the most effective clinical and paraclinical methods for prediction of falls in elderly patients of neurology ward. Мaterials and methods: the study included 251 patients (all retired by age) who admitted to neurology ward at the Hospital of Bashkir State Medical University (Ufa, Russia). The following tools were used: “Timed up and Go” (TUG), Berg Balance Scale (B), Duncan test (D), reactive balance test (T) and computerized stabilometric tests on force platform «STABILO-MBN» (Moscow). Results: Mean age of patients was 66.68 years (SD=8.79, median=64 года). The mean results of the clinical tests were the following: TUG=13.42 sec, SD=5.57 (normal reference time is less than 10 sec.), B= 45.90 (SD=7.70), which is interpreted as low risk for falling, D= 26.10 сm (SD=7.77), which is significantly less than normal results, T= 1.50 (SD=0.54), which is also worse than in healthy individuals. The best predictive power for prognosis of falls was calculated for reactive balance test values and root-mean-square deviation of center of pressure in frontal (CPF) or sagittal plane with the eyes closed. The authors present the predictive equations for prognosis of the number of falls. For instance, the predicted number of falls during 12 months =1.476 + 0.122TUG – 1.411T + 0.0161CPF. Conclusion: The tools evaluated in this study, have different effectiveness for prognosis of falls in patients and could be used in clinical practice as a part of predictive mathematical model.
falls, elderly, balance, prognosis.
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