Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov (Department of Socio-Cultural Design and Development of Territories, professor)
Moskva, Moscow, Russian Federation
The relevance of this study is determined by the fact that, after a long period of global movement toward a multipolar world, the United States is now demonstrating a high level of activity across many areas aimed at restoring a unipolar world under its leadership. These developments require a comprehensive analysis of the expected consequences for the global economy. The purpose of this study is to predict the impact of US actions aimed at restoring its hegemony on the global economy. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in the analysis of the US trend toward reviving unipolarity on the global economy from the perspective of F. Braudel's secular waves. Taking into account the cyclical patterns of F. Braudel's secular waves, it is shown that, assuming a minimum period of state dominance in history—120 years—the current period of US dominance in global space will last until the mid-21st century, approximately 2050. If we assume that the waves lengthen with each subsequent F. Braudel cycle, it is reasonable to assume that US hegemony in the world could extend until the 2080s. The US position in the modern global economy is analyzed from the perspectives of both the real asset market and the financial asset market. It is shown that while the US is seeking to strengthen its position in the financial asset market by legalizing cryptocurrency transactions, offering an attractive investment option where the decision is ultimately up to investors, in the real asset market, the United States, having significantly lost its position in the material processing industry and, recognizing the high volatility of the intangible production market in terms of intellectual property creation, is now acting quite aggressively in the natural resource market (raw materials, materials, fuel), seeking to demonstrate its former strength and power, which no one in the world can resist. The impact of the US trend toward the revival of unipolarity on the global economy is analyzed. It is shown that, on the one hand, the US desire to prolong its global hegemony within the framework of F. Braudel's secular waves is understandable. However, the mere desire to seize natural resources does not guarantee success in terms of their retention, subsequent processing, etc. On the other hand, the US's confrontation not only with countries it considers its direct competitors (China, Russia, etc.), but also with traditional allies (the EU, Canada, etc.) could shorten Braudel's secular wave for the US. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in their potential use in implementing the Russian Federation's Economic Security Strategy.
influence, US trends, resuscitation of unipolarity, global economy
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