Russian Federation
The purpose of this work is to study the impact of restrictive measures of the European Union on the level of political support for the ruling and opposition forces in the Islamic Republic of Iran as sanctioned country, to analyze the dependence of this support, as well as the level of turnout in parliamentary and presidential elections, possible causes and features of the manifestation of this influence in this country. The methodological approach in conducting the study of the consequences of the described processes and their interrelations will be the process approach. The author chose factor analysis as the method, which makes it possible to identify hidden interrelations between the variables under consideration by comparing changes in the level of sanctions pressure with the results of all parliamentary and presidential elections from 2004 to 2024. After collecting the relevant data for the case country, a factor model is built and a regression analysis is performed. Based on the results of the study, the author concludes that sanctions can indeed have an impact on the political dynamics in the target country, but the nature of this relationship is ambiguous. Sanctions can lead to increased support for the ruling elites by consolidating around the leader and perceiving an external threat. The practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of applying its conclusions and results in the fields of political planning and strategic forecasting. The results of the study can be useful for government agencies and institutions, as well as non-state actors interested in analyzing the effectiveness of sanctions measures and their consequences. The theoretical significance of the work lies in the possibility of obtaining a deeper theoretical understanding of the mechanisms and relationships in the application of sanctions as an alternative method of coercion and an instrument of influence.
European Union, Iran, sanctions policy, international relations, sanctions impact, political support, effectiveness of restrictive measures
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