Russian Federation
In the context of implementing strategic ideas for development, striving for sovereignty and technological independence of our country, forecasting in all spheres of socio-economic life, as well as the use of the obtained results for further significant transformations, is of great importance. The system of domestic education is no exception, in which strategic planning documents are developed at the federal and regional levels. At the same time, programs often do not take into account the predicted results and trends of ongoing transformations, and the formulated goals and objectives of development do not seem convincing and substantiated. The causes of the problem are associated with two most significant factors: insufficient development of mechanisms for obtaining forecast data and their interpretation; lack of experience in applying forecasting results in the practice of designing programs for the development of regional education systems. The significance of the stated topic is also related to the fact that education is increasingly being integrated into solving the problems of not only high-quality and accessible education and upbringing of the younger generation, but also the socio-economic development of regions (training of in-demand personnel, influencing demographic processes, maintaining and strengthening health, transmitting cultural and historical values from generation to generation, etc.). Forecasting allows us to determine the possible contribution and potential of the education system of an individual subject of the Russian Federation to the comprehensive development of the territory. Objective. To identify and justify the possibilities of obtaining and using forecast data for the development of the regional education system (using Primorsky Krai as an example). Methods. The following forecasting methods were used to obtain forecast data: content analysis, expert assessments, extrapolation; in the process of applying forecast results – design and modeling methods. Results. Information on the possibilities of using various forecasting methods to obtain forecast data is systematized. It is shown how the forecast results can be used in developing a program for the development of the regional education system. Scientific novelty. Mechanisms for integrating forecast data into the designed programs for the development of the regional education system have been developed. Methods of pedagogical forecasting (content analysis, expert assessments, extrapolation) have been adapted to the specifics of regional education. Practical significance. The experience of the project group presented in the article can be used in developing programs for the development of education systems in individual regions of our country based on forecast data.
forecasting, obtaining and using forecast results, forecasting methods, regional education system development program, socio-economic effects, risks, management
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