Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov (Department of Socio-Cultural Design and Development of Territories, Professor)
Moskva, Moscow, Russian Federation
Russian Federation
The relevance of the presented research is determined by the need to develop new approaches to managing socio-economic systems within the framework of the VI technological order, which has been developing since the 2020s. The purpose of the presented research is to predict the direction of development of theoretical and methodological developments in the field of management within the framework of the VI technological order in the 2030-2040s. The scientific novelty of the results obtained lies in the substantiation, based on a five-phase model, of a change in management concepts implemented within the framework of 10-year cycles of economic activity by K. Juglar, developing in a spiral within the framework of 50-year cycles of economic activity by N. Kondratiev, characterizing the development of technological structures, that the most likely forecast directions for the development of management concepts should be considered a concept based on human capital management and a concept for managing a company’s intellectual capital, respectively, in the 2030s and 2040s. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of their use in the interests of the development of theoretical and methodological developments in the field of management within the framework of the VI technological order in the 2030-2040s, both at the macro- and microeconomic levels.
forecasting, development directions, theoretical and methodological developments, management area, 2030-2040s
1. "Unichtozhit' do osnovaniya": chto shokovaya terapiya Gaydara sdelala s Rossiey. https://tsargrad.tv/special_projects/unichtozhit-do-osnovanija-a-zatem-chto-shokovaja-terapija-gajdara-sdelala-s-rossiej_360687 (data obrascheniya 01.04.2024)
2. Juglar C. Des Crises commerciales et leur retour périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis, — Paris, 1862. – 258 p.
3. Aktual'nye voprosy teorii, metodologii i praktiki sovremennogo menedzhmenta [Tekst]: [kol. monogr.] / [kol. avt.]; pod nauch. red. I. N. Tkachenko; M-vo obrazovaniya i nauki Ros. Federacii, UrO VEO Rossii, Ural. gos. ekon. un-t. — Ekaterinburg: Izd-vo Ural. gos. ekon. un-ta, 2017. — 190 s.
4. Akulov A.O. Analiz i prognozirovanie evolyucii menedzhmenta na osnove stadiy zhiznennogo cikla. https://science-bsea.narod.ru/2011/ekonom_2011_1/akulov_analiz.htm (data obrascheniya 01.04.2024)
5. Demkina O.V. Osobennosti prognozirovaniya v strategicheskom menedzhmente v Rossii. // Vestnik universiteta. 2014. №5, s.148-151.
6. Denisova I.V., Tebekin A.V., Tebekin P.A. Istoriya razvitiya menedzhmenta v 1900-e gody. // Zhurnal istoricheskih issledovaniy. 2017. T. 2. № 4. S. 1-8.
7. Denisova I.V., Tebekin A.V., Tebekin P.A. Istoriya razvitiya menedzhmenta v 1910-e gody. // Zhurnal istoricheskih issledovaniy. 2018. T. 3. № 3. S. 15-23.
8. Egorova A.A., Tebekin A.V. Analiz podhodov k opisaniyu processov razvitiya sovremennogo menedzhmenta. // Strategii biznesa. 2019. № 8 (64). S. 17-23.
9. Egorova A.A., Tebekin A.V., Tebekin P.A. Fazovyy podhod k opisaniyu processov razvitiya menedzhmenta v XX-XXI vekah. // Transportnoe delo Rossii. 2020. № 1. S. 87-96.
10. Egorova A.A., Tebekin A.V., Tebekin P.A. Razvitie koncepcii menedzhmenta v 2000-e gody i perspektivy ih ispol'zovaniya v sovremennyh krizisnyh usloviyah. // Zhurnal issledovaniy po upravleniyu. 2020. T. 6. № 2. S. 3-15.
11. Zbirovskaya E.P., Tebekin A.V. Issledovanie podhodov k razvitiyu mirovoy ekonomiki skvoz' prizmu nacional'nyh modeley menedzhmenta. // Transportnoe delo Rossii. 2016. № 1. S. 53-55.
12. Ignat'eva A.V., Mitropol'skaya-Rodionova N.V., Tebekin A.V., Horeva A.V. Konceptual'noe razvitie menedzhmenta v 2010-e gody i ego vliyanie na tendencii dal'neyshego razvitiya podhodov k upravleniyu. // Transportnoe delo Rossii. 2020. № 3. S. 72-77.
13. Izosimov S.V., Shevchenko A.L., Shevchenko V.L. Metody prognozirovaniya i ih primenenie v praktike menedzhmenta. // Ekonomiks. 2014. №3, s.72-77.
14. Kondrat'ev N. D., Oparin D. I. Bol'shie cikly kon'yunktury: Doklady i ih obsuzhdenie v Institute ekonomiki. — 1-e izd. — M., 1928. — 287 s.
15. Mitrofanova I.P., Alekseeva A.S. Perspektivnye napravleniya razvitiya menedzhmenta organizacii//Vestnik universiteta. 2023. № 10. S. 20–28.
16. Na poroge shestogo tehnologicheskogo. https://glazev.ru/articles/165-interv-ju/54430-na-poroge-shestogo-tekhnologicheskogo (data obrascheniya 01.04.2024)
17. Petrov V.S., Taburchak A.P., Tebekin A.V. Analiz evolyucii koncepciy menedzhmenta skvoz' prizmu perefokusirovki ob'ekta izmereniya rezul'tatov upravleniya social'no-ekonomicheskimi sistemami. // Ekonomicheskiy vektor. 2020. № 3 (22). S. 4-12.
18. Petrov V.S., Tebekin A.V. Analiz processov transformacii osnovnyh polozheniy effektivnogo menedzhmenta pri dvizhenii obschestva ot industrial'noy k postindustrial'noy ekonomike. // Strategii biznesa. 2018. № 12 (56). S. 3-12.
19. Pudich V.S. Sistemnoe razvitie menedzhmenta kak nauki: Monografiya. - M.: TEIS, INION - RAN, 2001. - 219 s.
20. Razvitie menedzhmenta: teoriya i praktika. Avramenko A.A., Anisimov V.G., Anisimov E.G., Afonina V.E., Bashina O.E., Vasilyuk T.N., Gorbatov M.Yu., Grekov I.V., Danilochkina N.G., Ignat'eva A.V., Evdokimova E.A., Zhidkova O.V., Kobcev I.E., Kozlovskaya E.A., Krutyakova Yu.A., Kukin I.I., Kukina M.A., Kumehov K.K., Larionov A.N., Lyahovenko T.I. i dr. Moskva, 2020. – 228 s.
21. Semencov S.Yu. Issledovanie istoricheskoy evolyucii i opredelenie transformacionnyh etapov razvitiya teorii i praktiki menedzhmenta. // Uchet i statistika. 2017. №4, s.125-131.
22. Strazhev V.I. Teoretiko-metodologicheskiy aspekt ekonomiki i menedzhmenta: sostoyanie i perspektivy razvitiya. https://elib.bsu.by/bitstream/123456789/56470/1/ Strazhev_Teoretiko-metodologicheskiy%20aspekt.rdf (data obrascheniya 01.04.2024)
23. Tebekin A.V. Zakonomernosti i sovremennye tendencii razvitiya mirovogo hozyaystva: prognozy ekonomicheskoy aktivnosti i perspektivy menedzhmenta. // Innovacii i investicii. 2012. № 3. S. 156-159.
24. Tebekin A.V. Issledovanie podhodov k opisaniyu processov razvitiya menedzhmenta v XX-XXI vekah. Moskva, 2019. – 113 s.
25. Tebekin A.V. Istoriya razvitiya menedzhmenta kak nauki v 1940-e gody i ee znachenie dlya resheniya sovremennyh problem upravleniya / A.V. Tebekin // Zhurnal issledovaniy po upravleniyu. 2018. T. 4. №8. — S. 1-8.
26. Tebekin A.V. K voprosu o vydelenii nauchnyh shkol menedzhmenta. // Zhurnal issledovaniy po upravleniyu. 2018. T. 4. № 12. S. 32-40.
27. Tebekin A.V. K voprosu o formirovanii koncepcii menedzhmenta 2030-h gg. / A.V.Tebekin // Vestnik Moskovskogo finansovo-yuridicheskogo universiteta. — 2019. — №2. — S. 168-176.
28. Tebekin A.V. Koncepciya povedencheskogo podhoda k upravleniyu kak bazovaya osnova dlya razvitiya menedzhmenta v 1960-e gody i ee znachenie dlya razvitiya sovremennyh metodov upravleniya / A.V. Tebekin, P.A. Tebekin, A.A. Tebekina // Zhurnal issledovaniy po upravleniyu. 2018. T. 4. №10. — S. 30-39.
29. Tebekin A.V. Model' udovletvorennosti potrebitelya N. Kano kak osnova razvitiya koncepcii innovacionnogo podhoda k upravleniyu v 1990-e gody. // Strategii biznesa. 2019. № 7 (63). S. 21-27.
30. Tebekin A.V. O glubine krizisa 2020-go goda dlya mirovoy i nacional'noy ekonomik i putyah vyhoda iz nego. // Zhurnal ekonomicheskih issledovaniy. 2020. T. 6. № 2. S. 52-71.
31. Tebekin A.V. Predposylki formirovaniya koncepcii menedzhmenta 2030-h godov. V sbornike: Tendencii i perspektivy razvitiya sociotehnicheskoy sredy. Materialy IV mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii. Otvetstvennyy redaktor I.L. Surat. 2018. S. 648-654.
32. Tebekin A.V. Prognoz ozhidaemyh izmeneniy v social'no-ekonomicheskih otnosheniyah v processe prodvizheniya obschestva k novym etapam razvitiya. // Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta im. S.Yu. Vitte. Seriya 1: Ekonomika i upravlenie. 2021. № 3 (38). S. 7-12.
33. Tebekin A.V. Razvitie koncepciy menedzhmenta v 1970-e gody / A.V. Tebekin // Zhurnal istoricheskih issledovaniy. — 2018. — T. 3. — №4. — S. 33-43.
34. Tebekin A.V. Razvitie koncepciy menedzhmenta v 1980-e gody / A.V. Tebekin, P.A. Tebekin, A.A. Tebekina // Zhurnal istoricheskih issledovaniy. — 2019. — T. 4. — №1. — S. 14-22.
35. Tebekin A.V. Razvitie menedzhmenta v HH veke: istoriko-metodologicheskiy podhod. // Zhurnal istoricheskih issledovaniy. 2023. T. 8. № 2. S. 58-65.
36. Tebekin A.V. Razvitie prikladnyh napravleniy menedzhmenta v 1930-e gody i ego znachenie dlya sovremennoy ekonomiki / A.V. Tebekin // Zhurnal issledovaniy po upravleniyu. 2018. T. 4. №7. — S. 58-67.
37. Tebekin A.V. Razvitie prikladnyh napravleniy menedzhmenta v 1950-e gody i ih vliyanie na razvitie sovremennogo menedzhmenta / A.V. Tebekin, P.A. Tebekin. — Tekst: neposredstvennyy // Transportnoe delo Rossii. — 2019. — №5. — S. 84-86.
38. Tebekin A.V. Sovremennyy menedzhment: osnovnye napravleniya razvitiya. // Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta im. S.Yu. Vitte. Seriya 1: Ekonomika i upravlenie. 2015. № 1 (12). S. 85-91.
39. Tebekin A.V. Sravnitel'naya harakteristika prikladnyh napravleniy menedzhmenta v 1920-e gody i 2020-e gody i ee znachenie dlya razvitiya sovremennoy ekonomiki / A.V. Tebekin, P.A. Tebekin, Tebekin A.A. // Transportnoe delo Rossii. 2018. — №5. — S. 90-92.
40. Tebekin A.V. Teoreticheskie podhody k opisaniyu processov razvitiya menedzhmenta v XIX-XXI vv. // Zhurnal ekonomicheskih issledovaniy. 2022. T. 8. № 2. S. 3-20.
41. Tebekin A.V. Formirovanie koncepcii upravleniya (menedzhmenta) 2020-h godov / A.V. Tebekin // Akademicheskiy vestnik Rostovskogo filiala Rossiyskoy tamozhennoy akademii. 2018. №1 (30). — S. 64-68.
42. Tebekin A.V. Evolyuciya koncepciy menedzhmenta organizacii. V sbornike: Aktual'nye problemy razvitiya ekonomiki v sovremennyh usloviyah. Materialy mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii. 2018. S. 423-429.
43. Tebekin A.V., Tebekin P.A. Razvitie menedzhmenta organizacii kak nauki, iskusstva i praktiki upravleniya v 1990-e gody. // Zhurnal sociologicheskih issledovaniy. 2019. T. 4. № 3. S. 16-22.
44. Tehnologii liderstva: Rossiya vyhodit na traektoriyu rosta. https://iz.ru/1709013/artem-iavorskii/tekhnologii-liderstva-rossiia-vykhodit-na-traektoriiu-rosta (data obrascheniya 01.04.2024)
45. Tolegenov Zh.T. Tendencii razvitiya menedzhmenta i ih vliyanie na upravlenie chelovecheskimi resursami. / Zh. T. Tolegenov // Mezhdunarodnyy nauchno-issledovatel'skiy zhurnal. - 2014. - №8 (27). - URL: https://research-journal.org/archive/8-27-2014-august/tendencii-razvitiya-menedzhmenta-i-ix-vliyanie-na-upravlenie-chelovecheskimi-resursami (data obrascheniya: 17.03.2024).
46. Tuhmadzhiev I.A. Osnovnye tendencii i napravleniya v razvitii sistem upravleniya. // Vestnik Rostovskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta (RINH). 2017. №4, s.120-125.
47. Upuschennyy shans ili posledniy klapan? (k 50-letiyu kosyginskih reform 1965 g.): monografiya / kollektiv avtorov; pod nauch. red. R.M. Nureeva. — Moskva: KNORUS, 2017. — 352 s.
48. Shelobaev S.I., Shelobaeva I.S., Bushuev V.D. Teoretiko-metodologicheskie osnovy ekonomicheskogo prognozirovaniya. // Fundamental'nye issledovaniya. – 2008. – № 1. – S. 125-128.
49. Ukaz Prezidenta Rossiyskoy Federacii ot 7 maya 2024 g. № 309 “O nacional'nyh celyah razvitiya Rossiyskoy Federacii na period do 2030 goda i na perspektivu do 2036 goda” https://www.garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/408892634/ (data obrascheniya: 01.04.2024).
