Saint-Petersburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
St. Peterburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
St. Peterburg, Russian Federation
UDK 630 Лесное хозяйство. Лесоводство
Studying the impact of climate change on forests is an important scientific and practical task. In order to improve the efficiency of forest management, the authors propose a methodology for assessing the level of adaptation of forests to climate change. The article presents the spatial differentiation of the level of forest adaptation calculated for 2021 and its analysis in the context of federal districts and subjects of the Russian Federation. For this purpose, we studied the data of state forest statistics for the period 2013-2022, where we selected indicators reflecting the adaptation of forests to climate risks. A database was created where indicative indicators of climate risk were selected and analyzed for each constituent entity of the Russian Federation. Reduced or insufficient level of adaptation, indicating the need to increase the volume of adaptation measures, is characteristic of 27 % of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, while a satisfactory, increased or high level of adaptation, demonstrating a reduction in the negative manifestations of climate risks, is characteristic of 73 % of the constituent entities. On average across the country, forests are more adapted to the risks of changes in productivity, increased outbreaks of insect pests and increased extreme weather events than to the risks of increased number of forest fires and changes in species composition. It is recommended to use the methodology for assessing the level of adaptation of forests to climate change at the level of regional planning of adaptation measures
forests, climate change, adaptation measures, methodology, climate risks, forest fires, insect pests, extreme weather events
1. Lukina N.V. Global'nye vyzovy i lesnye ekosistemy / N. V. Lukina // Vestnik Rossiyskoy akademii nauk. – 2020. – T. 90, № 6. – S. 528–532. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869587320060080.
2. Ocenka vklada rossiyskih lesov v snizhenie riskov klimaticheskih izmeneniy / E. A. Vaganov, B. N. Porfir'ev, A.A. Shirov [i dr.] // Ekonomika regiona. – 2021. – T. 17, № 4. – S. 1096–1109. – DOIhttps://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2021-4-4. – DOI: https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2021-4-4.
3. Boldvin-Kantello, V. Lesa kak centr deystviy po predotvrascheniyu global'nogo izmeneniya klimata / V. Boldvin-Kantello // Ustoychivoe lesopol'zovanie. – 2020. – № 3(62). – S. 25–26. – URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/qvppfx.
4. Loskin, M.I. Processy, svyazannye s izmeneniem klimata, vliyayuschie na ustoychivost' geosistem (na primere Central'noy Yakutii) / M.I. Loskin, S.P. Gotovcev, S.A. Pavlova // Prirodoobustroystvo. – 2021. – № 1. – S. 22–28. – DOI https://doi.org/10.26897/1997-6011-2021-1-22-28.
5. Heidari, H. Effects of Climate Change on Natural-Caused Fire Activity in Western U.S. National Forests / Heidari H., Arabi M., Warziniack T. // Atmosphere. – 2021. – №12(981). – P. 1–16. – DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12080981.
6. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a southern boreal forest basin / Z. He, J. W. Pomeroy, X. Fang, A. Peterson // Journal of Hydrology. – 2021. – Vol. 601. – P. 126706. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126706.
7. Konstantinov, A.V. Scenarnyy podhod k adaptacii lesnyh ekosistem Rossiyskoy Federacii v usloviyah izmeneniy klimata / A.V. Konstantinov // Izvestiya RAN. Seriya geograficheskaya. – 2023. – № 4. – S. 558–567. – DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587556623040039.
8. Ocenka vliyaniya ozhidaemyh izmeneniy klimata na lesnoe hozyaystvo / I.O. Torzhkov, E.A. Kushnir, A. V. Konstantinov, T.S. Koroleva, S.V. Efimov, S.M. Shkol'nik // Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. – 2019. – № 3. – S. 40–50. – URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/vwilxo.
9. Lipka, O.N. Rol' lesov v adaptacii prirodnyh sistem k izmeneniyam klimata / O.N. Lipka, M. D. Korzuhin, M.G. Zamolodchikov [i dr.] // Lesovedenie. – 2021. – № 5. – S. 531–546. – DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0024114821050077.
10. Vliyanie izmeneniy klimata na lesnye resursy Respubliki Bashkortostan / R. R. Bayturina, A. K. Gabdelhakov, O. V. Halikova [i dr.] // Lesotehnicheskiy zhurnal. – 2020. – T. 10, № 4(40). – S. 99–109. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.34220/issn.2222-7962/2020.4/8. – EDN YWUUJW.
11. Forest structure drives the expected growth of Pinus nigra along its latitudinal gradient under warming climate / D. Candel-Pérez, M. E. Lucas-Borja, A. I. García-Cervigón [et al.] // Forest Ecology and Management. – 2022. – Vol. 505. – P. 119818. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119818.
12. Kai, Xu. Assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change based on climate exposure, vegetation stability and productivity / Kai Xu, Xiangping Wang, Chao Jiang & Osbert Jianxin Sun // Forest Ecosystems. – 2020. – Vol. 7, Article number: 23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-020-00239-y.
13. Problem of climate-driven dynamics in the genetic forest typology / V. Fomin, N. Ivanova, A. Mikhailovich, E. Zolotova // AIP Conference Proceedings : 4th International Conference on Modern Synthetic Methodologies for Creating Drugs and Functional Materials, MOSM 2020, Yekaterinburg, Vol. 2388, Issue 1. – American Institute of Physics Inc. : American Institute of Physics Inc., 2021. – P. 030007. – DOI https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0068806.
14. Hinze, J. Climate-Adapted Potential Vegetation – A European Multiclass Model Estimating the Future Potential of Natural Vegetation / J. Hinze, A. Albrecht, H.-G. Michiels // Forests. – 2023. – № 14. – P. 1–19. – DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/f14020239.
15. Kuznecova, N. F. Sostoyanie lesov i dinamika ih porodnogo sostava v Central'nom federal'nom okruge / N. F. Kuznecova, M. Yu. Sautkina // Lesohozyaystvennaya informaciya. – 2019. – № 2. – S. 25–45. – DOI https://doi.org/10.24419/LHI.2304-3083.2019.2.03.
16. Climate variability may delay post-fire recovery of boreal forest in Southern Siberia, Russia / Q. Sun, R. Baxter, A. Burrell [et al.] // Remote Sensing. – 2021. – Vol. 13, No. 12. – DOI https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13122247.
17. Problemy i perspektivy ohrany lesov ot pozharov / M.A. Sheshukov, A.P. Kovalev, A.M. Orlov, V. V. Pozdnyakova // Sibirskiy lesnoy zhurnal. – 2020. – № 2. – S. 14–20. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.15372/SJFS20200202.
18. Pozhary kak faktor utraty bioraznoobraziya i funkciy lesnyh ekosistem / A. P. Geras'kina, D. N. Teben'kova, D. V. Ershov [i dr.] // Voprosy lesnoy nauki. – 2021. – T. 4, № 2. – DOI: https://doi.org/10.31509/2658-607x-202142-11.
19. Semenov, M. A. Prognoz adaptivnyh prisposobleniy v lesnom hozyaystve v svyazi s vozmozhnymi klimaticheskimi izmeneniyami / M. A. Semenov, A. A. Vysockiy, V. I. Paschenko // Izvestiya vysshih uchebnyh zavedeniy. Lesnoy zhurnal. – 2019. – № 5(371). – S. 57–69. – DOI https://doi.org/10.17238/issn0536-1036.2019.5.57.
20. Issledovanie uchastkov lesa, podverzhennyh vliyaniyu koroeda-tipografa (Ips typographus) v zapovednike "Kuril'skiy" (o. Kunashir) / N. R. Pirchalava-Karpova, A. A. Karpov, M. Yu. Grischenko, E. E. Kozlovskiy // Lesotehnicheskiy zhurnal. – 2020. – T. 10, № 1(37). – S. 50–59. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.34220/issn.2222-7962/2020.1/5. – EDN UDPRQU.
21. Dolgih, S.A. Ob izmenenii povtoryaemosti neblagopriyatnyh i ekstremal'nyh meteorologicheskih yavleniy na territorii Ertisskogo basseyna / S.A. Dolgih, E.Yu. Smirnova // Gidrometeorologiya i ekologiya. – 2020. – № 4 (99). – S. 135–153. – URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/muxtoz.
22. Climate-driven acceleration in forest evapotranspiration fuelling extreme rainfall events in the Himalaya / N. Singh, J. Singh, P. Chauhan [et al.] // Environmental Research Letters. – 2021. – Vol. 16, No. 8. – P. 084042. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac14ed.
23. Semenov, M. A. Ocenka uyazvimosti lesnogo hozyaystva lesostepnoy i stepnoy zon Evropeyskoy chasti Rossii k naibolee veroyatnym izmeneniyam klimata / M. A. Semenov, O. V. Komarova // Vestnik Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: Geografiya. Geoekologiya. – 2022. – № 3. – S. 76–85. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.17308/geo/1609-0683/2022/3/76-85. – EDN OPEPYV.
24. Konstantinov, A. V. Metodicheskiy podhod k ocenke adaptacionnogo potenciala lesnyh ekosistem Rossiyskoy Federacii / A. V. Konstantinov, S. M. Matveev // Trudy Sankt-Peterburgskogo nauchno-issledovatel'skogo instituta lesnogo hozyaystva. – 2020. – № 2. – S. 14–33. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.21178/2079-6080.2020.2.14. – EDN DGYYYZ.
25. Ocenka sostoyaniya i produktivnosti vysokopolnotnyh sosnovyh nasazhdeniy podtaezhno-lesostepnogo rayona Sredney Sibiri / A. A. Vays, P. V. Mihaylov, A. I. Mel'nik [i dr.] // Lesotehnicheskiy zhurnal. – 2022. – T. 12, № 3(47). – S. 26-41. – DOI https://doi.org/10.34220/issn.2222-7962/2022.3/3. – EDN QPCRYN.
26. Ocenka lesov Sibiri v usloviyah global'nyh izmeneniy / V. A. Sokolov, S. K. Farber, D. G. Schepaschenko [i dr.]. – Sankt-Peterburg : Izdatel'stvo «Naukoemkie tehnologii», 2023. – 326 s. – ISBN 978-5-907804-02-9. – EDN ZOJTAQ.
27. Sergienko, V. G. Prognoz vliyaniya izmeneniya klimata na raznoobrazie prirodnyh ekosistem i vidov floristicheskih i faunisticheskih kompleksov bioty Rossii / V. G. Sergienko, A. V. Konstantinov // Trudy Sankt-Peterburgskogo nauchno-issledovatel'skogo instituta lesnogo hozyaystva. – 2016. – № 2. – S. 29–44. – EDN WDJUGJ.
28. Ocenka sostava i struktury lesnogo pokrova Moskovskoy oblasti po nazemnym i distancionnym dannym / T.V. Chernen'kova, M.Yu. Puzachenko, N.G. Belyaeva, O.V. Morozova // Izvestiya Rossiyskoy akademii nauk. Seriya geograficheskaya. – 2019. – № 4. – S. 112–124 . – DOI:https://doi.org/10.31857/S2587-556620194112-124. – EDN ERYBVU.
29. Medvedkov, A. A. Klimatogennaya dinamika landshaftov sibirskoy taygi v basseyne Srednego Eniseya / A. A. Medvedkov // Geografiya i prirodnye resursy. – 2018. – № 4. – S. 122–129. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.21782/GIPR0206-1619-2018-4(122-129). – EDN VNXQGA.
30. Ivanova, G. A. Dinamika lesnyh pozharov na territorii lesnyh rayonov Sredney Sibiri / G. A. Ivanova, V. A. Ivanov // Interekspo Geo-Sibir'. – 2023. – T. 4, № 2. – S. 43–48. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.33764/2618-981X-2023-4-2-43-48. – EDN AYVBHS.
31. Babikova, N. N. Analiz dannyh o lesnyh pozharah v Respublike Komi s pomosch'yu Excel i Python / N. N. Babikova, N. O. Kotelina, F. N. Tentyukov // Vestnik Syktyvkarskogo universiteta. Seriya 1: Matematika. Mehanika. Informatika. – 2023. – № 4(49). – S. 29–46. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.34130/1992-2752_2023_4_29. – EDN JETQWM.
32. Soroka, A. O. Analiz urovnya adaptacii lesov v naibolee uyazvimyh k klimaticheskim izmeneniyam sub'ektah RF / A. O. Soroka, I. S. Nedbaev, E. I. Semenova // Stolyarovskie chteniya : Materialy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii, posvyaschennoy 95-letiyu akademika D.P. Stolyarova, Sankt-Peterburg, 05 oktyabrya 2023 goda. – Sankt-Peterburg: Sankt-Peterburgskiy nauchno-issledovatel'skiy institut lesnogo hozyaystva, 2023. – S. 62–66. – https://doi.org/DOIhttps://doi.org/10.21178/05102023.18. – EDN YLDMMQ.
33. Dendrohronologicheskaya indikaciya vspyshek razmnozheniya fillofagov po radial'nomu prirostu listvennicy v lesostepnoy zone Respubliki Tyva / T. V. Kostyakova, L. V. Belokopytova, D. F. Zhirnova [i dr.] // Sibirskiy ekologicheskiy zhurnal. – 2021. – T. 28, № 1. – S. 46–60. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.15372/SEJ20210105. – EDN YACDWB.
34. Otto, O. V. Antropogennoe vozdeystvie na lesnye resursy regiona na primere Altayskogo kraya / O. V. Otto, A. G. Red'kin, S. S. Slazhneva // Regional'naya ekonomika i upravlenie: elektronnyy nauchnyy zhurnal. – 2020. – № 4(64). – S. 18. – EDN CEFWMH.
35. Preventivnoe upravlenie lesnymi resursami Rossiyskoy Federacii v usloviyah klimaticheskih izmeneniy / A. V. Konstantinov, E. A. Kushnir, T. S. Koroleva, I. O. Torzhkov // Povyshenie effektivnosti upravleniya ustoychivym razvitiem lesopromyshlennogo kompleksa : Materialy Vserossiyskoy nauchnoy konferencii, posvyaschennoy 90-letiyu Voronezhskogo gosudarstvennogo lesotehnicheskogo universiteta imeni G.F. Morozova, Voronezh, 15–16 oktyabrya 2020 goda / Redkollegiya: E.A. Yakovleva [i dr.]. – Voronezh: Izdatel'stvo «Znanie-M», 2020. – S. 45–50. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.38006/907345-73-7.2020.45.50. – EDN SHGDIT.
