Tula, Tula, Russian Federation
Tula, Tula, Russian Federation
The paper is aimed to forecast how the crisis in the Russian economy is likely to evolve. The construction of econometric models of Russia’s economic dynamics for the period of 2000 to 2015 allows to predict, that in 2015-2019 the deep economic crisis is to be expected. During the crisis period the overall decline in production can reach 20%. The greatest decline in production is likely to occur in 2016-2017. In 2019-2020 stabilization or transition to growth of production can follow. Present crisis developments are by about 80% due to unfavorable institutional environment, being the result of the laws adopted. Thus the transition to economic growth even in 2019-2020 is quite questionable. As the authors argue, to overcome the crisis developments in the economy, it is needed to pursue more effective policy of building institutions, which would boost economic growth and economic development, as well as policies, aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship development, bringing in investments and expanding domestic demand.
crisis, econometric models, recession, stagnation, institutions, laws.
Перспективы развития кризиса в российской экономике активно обсуждаются российскими и зарубежными экономистами. Это определяет необходимость прогнозировать темпы спада экономики на ближайшие годы. Прежде всего, необходимо оценить время снижения темпов спада и время начала экономического подъема. Ранее авторами был дан прогноз, согласно которому подъем производства можно ожидать в 2019–2020 гг., при наибольшем уровне спада в 2017–2018 гг. [1]. Появление обоснованных оценок спада производства в 2015 г. позволяет уточнить эти сроки.
Для прогнозирования темпов роста экономики применим эконометрические модели [2]. Используем данные Росстата о величине индекса ВВП за период 2000–2014 гг. и оценку спада производства в 2015 г. величиной 3,5%, зафиксированные Росстатом в первом полугодии.
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