This article provides an overview of the macroeconomic situation in a number of countries: United States of America, European Union, China and Russia in the 3rd quarter of 2023. Currently important statistical data is used for the analysis, and the mainstream literature is reviewed. The authors mark the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators and describe the causes and possible consequences of the changes. The core indicators considered include GDP level, unemployment rate, inflation rate, key rate, consumer spending, government spending and others. The budget of each country is analyzed. For some indicators, the authors make forecasts of changes in indicators for future periods, taking into account various conjunctural factors. The article was written within the framework of the Crisis Management Center of the School of Public Administration, Lomonosov Moscow State University.
: national economy, inflation, unemployment, economic growth, budget
1. Presidential Decree of October 11, 2023, "On the Mandatory Sale of Revenue in Foreign Currency Received by Certain Russian Exporters under Foreign Trade Agreements (Contracts)."
2. PMI Releases [Electronic resource] // S&P Global. URL: https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/public/release/pressreleases?language=ru (accessed on November 16, 2023).
3. Report on Monetary Policy [Electronic resource] // Central Bank of the Russian Federation. URL: https://cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/46552/2023_04_ddcp.pdf (accessed on November 10, 2023).
4. Key Rate of the Bank of Russia and Inflation [Electronic resource] // Bank of Russia. URL: https://cbr.ru/hd_base/infl/?UniDbQuery.Posted=True&UniDbQuery.From=15.11.2014&UniDbQuery.To=15.11.2023 (accessed on November 15, 2023).
5. National Bureau of Statistics of China [Electronic resource] // URL: http://www.stats.gov11/sj/zxfb/202309/t20230909_1942695.html (accessed on November 17, 2023).
6. Payukhina, L. S. Effectiveness of Sanction Regulation in International Economic Policy / L. S. Payukhina, I. N. Lenkov // Risk Management. - 2023. - No. 2(106). - P. 3-7.
7. Balance of Payments, International Investment Position, and External Debt of the Russian Federation in January-June 2023 [Electronic resource] // Central Bank of the Russian Federation. URL: https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/svs/p_balance/ (accessed on November 17, 2023).
8. Rosstat Presents Preliminary GDP Estimate for the III Quarter of 2023 [Electronic resource] // Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/222962 (accessed on November 16, 2023).
9. Ryaskova, E. S. Default Risks in the Context of Financial Globalization Processes and Deglobalization Effects / E. S. Ryaskova, N. V. Ryaskov // Scientific Research and Development. Russian Journal of Project Management. - 2023. - Vol. 12, No. 3. - P. 3-8.
10. Sberbank [Electronic resource] // URL: https://sberindex.ru/ru/research/operativnaya-otsenka-dinamiki-potrebitelskikh-raskhodov-za-sentyabr-i-2--8-oktyabrya-2023 (accessed on November 15, 2023).
11. Economic Reviews [Electronic resource] // Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. URL: https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/directions/makroec/ekonomicheskie_obzory/ (accessed on November 15, 2023).
12. Bureau of Economic Analysis [Electronic resource] // URL: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product (accessed on November 18, 2023).
13. China Sells Most US Securities in Four Years Amid Yuan Weakness [Electronic resource] // Bloomberg. URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-19/china-sells-most-us-securities-in-four-years-amid-yuan-weakness (November 4, 2023).
14. Employment - Annual Statistics [Electronic resource] // Eurostat. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Employment_-_annual_statistics (accessed on November 10, 2023).
15. Eurostat [Electronic resource] // URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/NAMQ_10_GDP__custom_10558/bookmark/table?lang=en&bookmarkId=a4ce6a9d-7ef1-48f1-a5bf-e23a717fcf75 (accessed on November 5, 2023).
16. Midterm Review of the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027 [Electronic resource] // European Commission. URL: https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/eu-budget_en (accessed on November 9, 2023).
17. Moody's Turns Negative on US Credit Rating, Draws Washington Ire [Electronic resource] // Reuters. URL: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/moodys-changes-outlook-united-states-ratings-negative-2023-11-10/ (accessed on November 13, 2023).
18. Price Wars During Chinese Shopping Fest Expose Consumer Woes [Electronic resource] // Reuters. URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/price-wars-during-chinese-shopping-fest-expose-consumer-woes-2023-11-10/ (accessed on November 16, 2023).
19. September 2023: EU Unemployment Rate at 6.0% [Electronic resource] // Destatus. URL: https://www.destatis.de/Europa/EN/Topic/Population-Labour-Social-Issues/Labour-market/EULabourMarketCrisis.html (accessed on November 16, 2023).
20. Summer 2023 Economic Forecast: Easing Growth Momentum Amid Declining Inflation and Robust Labour Market [Electronic resource] // European Commission. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_23_4408 (accessed on November 17, 2023).
21. The Federal Reserve [Electronic resource] // URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231019a.htm.
22. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics [Electronic resource] // URL: https://www.bls.gov/ (accessed on November 18, 2023).
23. US Consumer Spending Exits Third Quarter on Strong Note; Monthly Core Inflation Rises [Electronic resource] // Reuters. URL: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-spending-beats-expectations-september-2023-10-27/#:~:text=Adjusting%20for%20inflation%2C%20consumer%20spending,match%20last%20quarter's%20blockbuster%20performance (accessed on November 3, 2023).
24. US Manufacturing Sector Stabilization Confirmed in October [Electronic resource] // TradingView. URL: https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:391855:0-us-manufacturing-sector-stabilization-confirmed-in-october/ (accessed on November 9, 2023).
