Russian Federation
Relevance. The article analyzes the current Russian labour market conditions on the basis of official data. The Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development is considered. Object. Suggestions and comments on the contents of the draft Forecast of Economic Development of Russia on the labour market and employment are given. Subject of the Study. Measures to promote employment, regulate of labour migration processes and increase the minimum earings to the subsistence level. The expediency of reflecting in the draft Forecast the influence of newly adopted laws and regulations on the labour market is stressed. Comments on the options of the forecast of the unemployment rate up to 2017 are given. The authors bring three variants of the situation on the labour market until 2017. Implementating the first scenario is assumed provided the relative stabilization of the geopolitical situation is achieved. Purpose. The second variant of the forecast (moderate — optimistic) is proposed. The negative variant of the forecast by presenting the calculated indicators of the labour market and employment and their dynamics is substantiated. General conclusions about the situation on the labour market in the future until 2017 are given. The factors of government economic policies that directly affect the dynamics of the level of employment are specified.
labour market, employment, an unemployment rate, forecast, labour migration, compensation.
1. Анализ текущей ситуации на рынке труда Российской Федерации1
Численность населения начиная с 2009 г. постепенно росла, что связано с увеличением числа родившихся в целом по России. Одновременно проявилась негативная тенденция сокращения количества населения в трудоспособном возрасте и увеличения численности населения старше трудоспособного возраста [Забелина, Романюк, 2014, с. 156–165]. Уровень занятости этой категории населения также растет. Позитивным является и увеличение числа работающих инвалидов, что, вероятно, связано с реализацией государственных программ, направленных на содействие занятости данной категории граждан [РБК. Минтруд планирует полностью решить проблему занятости инвалидов к 2020 году]. Уровень безработицы (рассчитанный по методологии Международной организации труда) начиная с 2009 г. постепенно снижался и составил в 2014 г. 5,8% от экономически активного населения. Среднемесячная номинальная начисленная заработная плата работников организаций возросла в три раза с 2006 по 2014 г. Более наглядно динамика данных представлена на графиках и диаграммах (см. рис. 1–4).
______________
1 См.: «Труд и занятость населения» (2013 г.), «Экономическая активность населения» (2014 г.) и др.
1. Global employment trends 2013: recovering from a second jobs dip. I nternational L abour Organization. 2013, pp. 1-6 [Summary]. A vailable at: http://www.ilo.org/global/research/global-reports/global-employmenttrends/2013/WCMS_202215/lang--en/index.htm
2. Soubbotina T., Sheram K. The world Bank Group. Beyond Economic growth. M eeting the challenges of global development. Washington, 2010. pp. 50-54.
3. World social protection report 2014/15. Building economic recovery, inclusive development and social justice. Executive summary. I nternational L abour Organization. 2014, pp. 1-7. http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---comm/documents/publication/wcms_245131.pdf
4. Bobkov V.N., Volgin N.A., Kurilchenko E.I. I ncreasing of real guarantees on wages - a real challenge. The standard of living of the population of regions of Russia. 2014, I. 2 (192). (in Russian)
5. Vesti economiki [News of economics]. Putin: it is necessary to develop agriculture and industry of the C rimea. Available at: http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/41879 (accessed 03 October 2014). (in Russian)
6. Vorobyova O.D., Grebenuk A.A., Topilin A.V. Problems of information support of the prediction of labour migration in Russia. Problems of F orecasting. 2014, I. 4, pp. 47-62. (in Russian)
7. Demographic Yearbook of Russia. 2013. S tatistical Yearbook. M oscow, Rosstat Publ., 2013. 543 p. (in Russian)
8. Zabelina O.V., Romaniuk A.V. E valuation of the main factors determining the dynamics of the labour market in the region. Tver, LLC «Publisher «Triad»» Publ., 2014. 220 p. (in Russian)
9. Conclusion of the A ccounts C hamber of the Russian F ederation on the draft federal law «About the F ederal Budget for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017», approved by the A ccounting C hamber of the Russian F ederation, the M inutes of 10.10.2014. № 46K (992). 606 р. (in Russian)
10. ITAR-TASS. The Russian government intends to open the F ar E ast for migrant workers. A vailable at: http://itartass.com/obschestvo/1509200 (accessed 22 N ovember 2014). (in Russian)
11. ITAR-TASS. Russian President proposed to extend the program «Accessible E nvironment» until 2020. A vailable at: http://itar-tass.com/obschestvo/1622869 (ccessed 04 December 2014). (in Russian)
12. Kapelyushnikov R.I. E nd of the Russian model of labour market?: Preprint WP3/2009/06. M oscow, H ouse of the State University H igher S chool of E conomics Publ., p. 80. (in Russian)
13. Kashepov A.V. Russia in 2020: population and labour force projections. H erald of Russian N ew University. 2012, I. 2, pp. 7. (in Russian)
14. Korovkin A.G. The dynamics of employment and labour market in the Russian F ederation: questions of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. M oscow, MAX Press Publ., 2001. 329 p. (in Russian)
15. Kuzmin V.V., Kuznetsov S.G., Kulagina N.M., Popov A.D. Problems of forecasting parameters of employment and labour market. Proceedings of I nstitute of E conomic Forecasting. 2010, V. 8, pp. 703-726. (in Russian)
16. Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation from 15.04.2014 № 298 «On approval of the state program of the Russian F ederation «Promotion of E mployment». Laws of the Russian F ederation. 05.05.2014. № 18 (Part I). Art. 2147. (in Russian)
17. Government D ecree of 30.10.2013 № 973 «On the minimum and maximum values of unemployment benefits for 2014». A vailable at: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_153894/ (accessed 22 November 2014). (in Russian)
18. Social and E conomic D evelopment of the Russian Federation for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 [electronic resource] A ccess of reference and legal system «Consultant Plus». (in Russian)
19. Order of the Government of the Russian F ederation of 17.11.2008 № 1662-r (ed. By 08.08.2009) «On the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian F ederation for the period up to 2020» [electronic resource] A ccess of reference and legal system «Consultant plus». (in Russian)
20. RBC. M inistry of L abour plans to completely solve the problem of employment of persons with disabilities by 2020. A vailable at: http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/20131203123541.shtml (accessed 01 December 2014). (in Russian)
21. Roik V.D. A n aging population and the need to create a new paradigm of life in old age. The standard of living of the population of regions of Russia. 2009, I. 8-9 (138-139), 2009. (in Russian)
22. The Russian newspaper. E mployment. Unemployment in Russia decreased by 40 thousand people a week. A vailable at: http://www.rg.ru/2010/05/24/trud.html (accessed 22 November 2014). (in Russian)
23. Sigova S., Kekkonen A. Recent trends in labour market forecasting: the experience of developed countries and Russia. Problems of the theory and practice of management. 2013, I. 3, pp. 98-105. (in Russian)
24. The F ederal L aw of 01.12.2014 № 408-FZ «On Amendments to the article 1 of the Federal Law «On the Minimum Wage»». Rossiyskaya Gazeta 03.12.2014. I. 275. (in Russian)
25. The Federal Law of 01.12.2014 №384-FZ «On the Federal Budget for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017». Rossiyskaya Gazeta. 05.12.2014. I. 278. (in Russian)
26. The F ederal L aw of 24.11.2014 № 357-FZ «On Amendments to the Federal Law «On Legal Status of Foreign Citizens in the Russian Federation»» and some legislative acts of the Russian F ederation». Rossiyskaya Gazeta. 27.11.2014. I. 270. (in Russian)
27. «Kids» will give a tax break. A vailable at: http: //expert.ru/2014/05/8/malyisham-dadut-nalogovuyuperedyishku/(accessed 23 November 2014). (in Russian)
