Object. Demographic processes of fertility, mortality, migration in Moscow. Subject of the Study. Interrelation of the standard of living and demographics. Dynamics of population size and density of Moscow, the age structure of the population, trends in demographic processes of fertility, mortality and migration. Dynamics of migration rates. Migration and natural increase of the population of Moscow. The aging process. Analytical Results. Declining birth rates and rising death rates (natural decline in the population of Moscow from 1989 to 2010) as a consequence of the economic crisis of the 1990s. The first increase in the birth rate in the early 2000s. as a phenomenon of the demographic wave of the past, and how to improve the economic situation and population policy. Unevenness of growth in the population of the Moscow administrative districts. Significant shift in the ratio between the number of adjacent generations — the factor of demographic waves. High rate of migration — a factor of the economic needs of a large city in the labour force. Shift of the peak of births by age group of 20-24 years to 25-29 years (approaching fertility patterns in Berlin and London). The age pattern of fertility in Moscow is markedly different from the “new” model of fertility of most Russian regions. Positive trend: reducing the proportion of non-marital births in the total number of births in Moscow from 30% (2005) to 25% (2011), and in Russia. Life expectancy in 2012 was in Moscow 71.6 years for men and 79.6 years for women. Gender differences in Moscow: a reduction in mortality (rate of men — minus the rate of women) decreased from 10.8 years (2001) — up to 8 years old (2012). The main causes of death are: 1) cardiovascular diseases; 2) accidents (injury and poisoning). High mortality Moscow is relatively in a more favourable position to the other regions of Russia. Migration processes. Net migration of Moscow at the expense of internal migration had doubled by 2000. Share of regions in the Central District is at 36-39% of the volume of migration in Russia. Win birth of those arrived from other towns (non-residents) in Moscow vigorously growing: from 3.5% (1992) to 21% (2011). Purpose. Getting a complete picture of the dynamic basic demographic indicators (fertility, mortality, migration). Sources of Social Statistics. The author has used the data of the 2002 and 2010 censuses, as well as of the current statistics. Particular attention is paid to the influence of fertility and mortality among non-resident citizens of Moscow on the performance of vital Moscow.
Moscow, population, fertility, mortality, migration, age structure of the population.
1. Введение
В 2013 г. в России впервые за два десятилетия был зафиксирован естественный прирост населения в размере 24 013 человек1. По величине естественного прироста Москва находится в лидирующей группе регионов, уступая Республике Дагестан, Тюменской области и Чеченской Республике. Москва за 2013 г. показала естественный прирост населения в размере 19 887 человек, что немного меньше прироста по стране в целом. Такой положительный результат заставляет обратить внимание на тенденции в демографическом развитии Москвы для определения проблем и уточнения перспектив развития населения города.
Уровень жизни влияет на демографическую ситуацию и наоборот: демографические процессы (рождаемость, смертность, миграция), изменяя численность и состав населения, влияют на экономическое, социальное, политическое, экологическое развитие территории [Бобков, 2013, 19, с. 3–11]. Высокий уровень жизни в Москве поддерживает миграционный приток в столицу, что не только восполняет трудовые ресурсы города, но и способствует притоку частных инвестиций через покупку недвижимости, расходы мигрантов на образование, медицину, товары длительного потребления и пр. Анализ демографического развития позволяет выявить направления социально-экономического развития города. Очевидно, например, что демографическое старение или относительное увеличение домохозяйств одиночек не только меняют инфраструктуру города, структуру спроса на разного рода услуги, но и сказываются на таких показателях уровня жизни, как доходы на душу населения, масштабы экономического неравенства и пр.
Среди публикаций, посвященных исследованию населения Москвы, можно отметить вышедший в 1992 г. сборник статей «Население Москвы: прошлое, настоящее, будущее» под редакцией В.М. Моисеенко, где рассмотрены демографические и социальные процессы. В 2006 г. вышла книга «Демографическая ситуация в Москве и тенденции ее развития» под редакцией Л.Л. Рыбаковского, в которой проанализированы демографические процессы и охарактеризованы тенденции в демографическом развитии Москвы на основании данных текущей статистики и переписи 2002 г.
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