Epizootical monitoring of natural tularemia focuses for 1976-4014 years showed that main carrier of infection is common vole (Microtus arvalis). For the part of all obtained cultures of tularemia bacteria common vole has 51,2%. Its strength and infection can change. At period for 1976-2006 years, natural tularemia focuses were at high activity level, but since 2007 year for now, they are at low activity level. By using method artificial neural network made mathematical model of prediction epizootical tularemia; found that climatic factors (downfalls, temperature, snow depth) playing main role at processes reduction activity and strength of natural tularemia focuses, for example, tularemia epizootia can happen in case of froze December, numerous downfalls and high snow depth.
tularemia, epizootia, common vole (Microtus arvalis), artificial neural network, strength, infection, natural tularemia focus, climatic factors.
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