PORTFOLIO RISK MANAGEMENT OF PROJECT NETWORK INTERDEPENDENCY (ON THE EXAMPLE OF AGROHOLDING)
Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
The article is devoted to the problem of portfolio risk management of network project interdependencies in an agricultural company, as the lack of existing methods of project portfolio risk assessment and proper consideration of interdependencies are traced. During the study, we conducted an in-depth interview with the CFO of the company to identify the pool of ongoing projects of the company, determine the types of interproject dependencies, the likelihood of the corresponding risk in the project and the level of losses in monetary terms. Using the method of expert assessments and the noisy-OR gate tool, calculations were made in the GeNIe software product to determine the overall risk of the project portfolio after identifying high-risk projects and then recommendations were given for the application of a dynamic portfolio risk management model based on the software product used in the company.

Keywords:
project portfolio management; risk management, project interdependencies, GeNIe, noisy-OR gate, Case Study, Agroholding
References

1. Kozlova N.A. Issledovanie celesoobraznosti primeneniya bayesovskih setey doveriya dlya analiza proektnyh riskov kompaniy pischevoy promyshlennosti [Tekst]: vyp. kval. rabota - bak. rabota: 38.03.02 / N.A. Kozlova. - M., 2016.

2. Lee E., Park Y., Shin J.G. Large engineering project risk management using a Bayesian belief network. Exp. Syst. Appl. 2009, 36, p. 5880-5887.

3. Fomenko A.O. Metodika rascheta proektnyh riskov na osnove primeneniya bayesovskih setey [Tekst] / A.O. Fomenko // Vestnik NTUU «KPІ». - 2011. - № 54. - S. 126-129.

4. Antonucci Y. Sun, C.P. de Campos, Zaffalon M. Generalizedloopy 2U: a new algorithm for approximate inference in credal networks // International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 51(5): 474-484, 2010.

5. Neumeier A., Radszuwill S., Tirazheh Zare Garizy. Modeling project criticality in IT project portfolios // International Journal of Project Management, 2018.

6. GeNIe Modeler: User manual, Version 3.0.R2, Built on 11/5/2020, BayesFusion, LLC, 614 p. URL: https://support. bayesfusion.com/docs/GeNIe.pdf

7. Project management Institute. A guide to the project management body of knowledge. Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute; 2004.

8. Cooper R.G., Edgett S.J., Kleinschmidt E.J. New product portfolio management: Practices and performance // Journal of Product Innovation Management. 1999; 16 (4), p. 333-351.

9. Matveev A.A. Modeli i metody upravleniya portfelyami proektov [Tekst] / A.A. Matveev, D.A. Novikov, A.V. Cvetkov. - M.: PMSOFT, 2005. - 206 s.

10. Gozde Bilgin, Gorkem Eken, Beste Ozyurt, Irem Dikmen, M. Talat Birgonul, Beliz Ozorhon. Handling project dependencies in portfolio management // Procedia Computer Science 121 (2017) p. 356-363.

11. Sameer Bathallath, Åsa Smedberg, Harald Kjellin. Project interdependency management in IT/IS project portfolios: from a systems perspective // Procedia Computer Science 100 (2016), p. 928-934.

12. An'shin V.M. Modeli upravleniya portfelem proektov v usloviyah neopredelennosti [Tekst] / V.M. An'shin, I.V. Demkin, I.M. Nikonov, I.N. Car'kov. - M.: Izd-vo MATI, 2007. - S. 7-14.

13. Bannerman P.L. (2008). Defining project success: a multilevel framework. Paper presented at PMI® Research Conference: Defining the Future of Project Management, Warsaw, Poland. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute.

14. Roberto Rivera, Manish Vyas. Portfolio Risk Management & its Contribution to Project Portfolio Success: An Investigation of Organization, Process & Culture // Project Management Journal, 2013.

15. Killen C.P., Kjaer C. Understanding project interdependencies: The role of visual representation, culture and process // International Journal of Project Management 2012; 30 (5), p. 554-566.

16. Gear T.E., Cowie G.C. A note on modeling project interdependence in research and development. Decis. Sci., 1980, 11, p. 738-748.

17. Schmidt R.L. A model for R&D project selection with combined benefit, outcome and resource interactions. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manag., 1993, 40, 403-410.

18. Sayt agroholdinga «Energomera» [Elektronnyy resurs]. - URL: http://energomera-agro.ru/company/about (data obrascheniya: 07.05.2021).

19. Godovoy otchet AO «Koncern Energomera», 2019. - URL http://www.energomera.com/uploads/files/2020_go4.pdf

20. QGeNIe - A Link Between Qualitative and Quantitative Bayesian Networks. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=oen8ycq6sV0 (data obrascheniya: 31.12.2020).

Login or Create
* Forgot password?