The data on fatality caused by rock fall in the country's coal mines during 2006-2017, and the values of individual risk at individual industrial facilities are presented. A mathematical model based on the Bayes theorem for estimating the value of fatality individual risk for workers of coal mines is provided. A classification for value of workers fatality individual risk in accordance with the frequency of rock fall in coal mines has been presented.
Bayes theorem, rock fall, fatality, coal mines
1. Doklad Rostekhnadzora “Sostoyanie promyshlennoj bezopasnosti na opasnyh proizvodstvennyh ob"ektah ugol'noj promyshlennosti” [Rostechnadzor report “The state of industrial safety at hazardous production facilities of the coal industry”]. Available at: https://www.nadzor-info.ru/media/blog/51260/ (accessed 07 March 2019). (in Russian).
2. Koncepciya priemlemogo riska [The concept of acceptable risk]. MChS Rossii [EMERCOM of Russia]. Available at: http://www.mchs.gov.ru/dop/terms/item/87812. (in Russian).
3. Kabanov E.I. Razrabotka metodiki ocenki riskov avarij na ugol'nyh shahtah s uchetom konkretnyh gorno-geologicheskih uslovij [Development of a methodology for assessing the risks of accidents at coal mines taking into account specific mining and geological conditions]. Gornyj informacionno-analiticheskij byulleten' [Mining information and analytical bulletin]. 2017, I. 4, pp. 374-383. (in Russian).
4. Rudakov M.L., Kol'vah K.A. O vozmozhnosti ispol'zovaniya kriteriya maksimal'nogo pravdopodobiya v celyah ocenki professional'nogo riska, obuslovlennogo obrusheniyami gornyh porod pri podzemnoj dobyche uglya [On the possibility of using the maximum likelihood criterion in order to assess the occupational risk caused by the collapse of rocks during underground coal mining]. Bezopasnost' zhiznedeyatel'nosti [Safety of life]. 2019, I. 8, pp. 10-13. (in Russian).
5. Doklad Rostekhnadzora “Obstoyatel'stva i prichiny neschastnyh sluchaev, proizoshedshih v 2017 godu” [Rostekhnadzor report “Circumstances and causes of accidents that occurred in 2017”]. Available at: http://usib.gosnadzor.ru/info/. (in Russian).
6. Efremov, I.V. Nadezhnost' tekhnicheskih sistem i tekhnogennyj risk [Reliability of technical systems and technogenic risk]. Orenburg: OGU Publ., 2013. 163 p. (in Russian).