METHOD FOR URBAN ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY’S INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT WITH THE USAGE OF LOGICAL-PROBABILISTIC APPROACH
Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
The work has been devoted to development of method for integral assessment of an industrial city’s level of ecological security using the logical-probabilistic approach. The basic methods for integral assessment of negative factors’ impact on industrial cities’ environment and such cities’ population health. Have been developed a logical-probabilistic model for an industrial city’s ecological safety evaluation to predict this city’s development, and method for integrated assessment of industrial city’s ecological safety using logical-probabilistic approach.

Keywords:
environmental challenge, logical-and-probabilistic approach, risk, technogenic hazard, environmental safety, city safety.
Text

1. Введение
Экологическая обстановка промышленных городов зависит от ряда факторов, в том числе от географического положения, особенностей рельефа, от состояния дел в промышленном секторе экономики и на транспорте, а также экологической грамотности и ответственности руководителей и специалистов предприятий, учреждений и населения города [1].

References

1. Arkhangelsky V. I. Gigiena s osnovami ekologii cheloveka [Hygiene with the basics of human ecology]. Moscow, GEOTAR-Media Publ., 2011. 752 p. (in Russian)

2. Nikonov B. I., Gurvich V. B., Kuzmin S. V., Privalova L. I., Katznelson B. A., Voronin S.A, Malyh O.L., Chebotarkova S. A., Kornilkov A. S., Kochneva N. I. Otsenka riska i ekologo-epidemiologicheskie issledovaniya kak vzaimosvyazannye instrumenty sotsial’no-gigienicheskogo monitoringa na mestnom i regional’nom urovnyakh [Risk assessment and eco- epidemiological studies as related instruments of social and hygienic monitoring at local and regional level]. Gigiena i sanitariya [Hygiene and sanitation]. 2004, I. 5, pp. 62-64. (in Russian)

3. Musikhina E. A. Otsenka ekologicheskogo riska territorii Irkutskoy oblasti [Assessing the environmental risk of the Irkutsk Region]. Uspekhi sovremennogo estestvoznaniya [The successes of modern science]. 2012, I. 2, pp. 26-30. (in Russian)

4. Korenevsky N. A., Krupchatnikov R. A., Chursin G. V., Kopteva N. A., Afanasyev V. I. Prognozirovanie zabolevaniy, vyzyvaemykh ekologicheskimi faktorami riska, kharakternymi dlya Kurskoy oblasti [Prediction of diseases caused by environmental risk factors specific to the Kursk region]. Vestnik Kurskoy gosudarstvennoy sel’skokhozyaystvennoy akademii [Herald Kursk State Agricultural Academy]. 2009, I. 3, pp. 60-65. (in Russian)

5. Penenko V. V., Tsvetova E. A. Ekologicheskoe prognozirovanie s uchetom klimaticheski obuslovlennykh riskov [Ecological forecasting accounting for the climate -caused risks]. Vychislitel’nye tekhnologii [Computational technologies]. 2006, I. 11(2), pp. 134-144. (in Russian)

6. Jiang X., Lu W. X., Zhao H.Q, Yang Q. C., Yang Z. P. Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavymetal pollution around coal gangue dump. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2014, I. 14, pp. 1599-1610.

7. Li J., Huangb G. H., Zengc G., Maqsoodd I., Huange Y. An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for risk assessment of groundwater contamination. Journal of Environmental Management. 2007, I. 82, pp. 173-188.

8. Silva L. T., Mendes J. F.G. City Noise-Air: An environmental quality index for cities. Sustainable Cities and Society. 2012, I. 4, pp. 1-11.

9. Riahi R., Beznosyk Y. A., Bugaeva L. N., Statyuha G. A. Prognozirovanie ekologicheskikh riskov s ispol’zovaniem analiza ierarkhiy i teorii nechetkikh mnozhestv [Prediction of environmental risks using analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy sets theory]. Vestnik Vinnits’kogo politekhnichnogo instituta. [Journal of Vinnitsa Polytechnic Institute]. 2006, I. 5, pp. 114-118. (in Russian)

10. Kazanskaya A. N., Myasoedova T. N., Hajiyeva V. A. Otsenka sotsial’no-ekologo-ekonomicheskogo sostoyaniya territoriy kak instrument ustoychivogo razvitiya munitsipal’nykh obrazovaniy [Assessment of the socio - economic and ecological condition of territories as a tool for sustainable municipal development]. Internet-zhurnal “Tekhnologii tekhnosfernoy bezopasnosti” [Internet magazine “Technology technospheric security”]. 2015, I. 1. (in Russian)

11. Boyko A. I., Novitsky A. V., Banny A. A., Kondratyuk A. V. Logiko-veroyatnostnaya model’ otsenki nadezhnosti sel’skokhozyaystvennykh mashin [Logical and probabilistic model evaluating the reliability of agricultural machines]. “Tekhnicheskie nauki - ot teorii k praktike”: sbornik statey po materialam XXIX mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii [“Engineering - From Theory to Practice”: a collection of articles on materials of the XXIX International scientific-practical conference]. 2013, I. 12, pp. 149-156. (in Russian)

12. Solojentsev E. D. Stsenarnye logiko-veroyatnostnye modeli riska vzyatok [Scenario logic and probabilistic risk models bribes]. Trudy VII Mezhdunarodnoy konferentsii “Upravlenie bol’shimi sistemami” [Proceedings of the VII International Conference “Managing large systems”]. 2007, pp. 87-90. (in Russian)

13. Belov P. G. Avtomatizirovannyy kolichestvennyy analiz modeley opasnykh sotsial’nykh yavleniy s tsel’yu prognoza i snizheniya ikh riska [Automated quantitative analysis of patterns of dangerous social phenomena in order to forecast and reduce their risk]. 2014. (in Russian)

14. Belov S. V., Devisilov V. A., Koziakov A. F., Morozov L. L., Sivkov V. P., Spiridonov V. S., Yakubovich D. M. Bezopasnost’ zhiznedeyatel’nosti [Health and Safety]. Moscow, Higher School Publ., 2003. 357 p. (in Russian)

15. Fokina M. O., Belov P. G. Nauka i bezopasnost’ Rossii: riski NBIC-tekhnologiy [Science and security in Russia: risks NBIC- technologies]. Rossiya 2030 glazami molodykh uchenykh [Russia 2030 through the eyes of young scientists]. 2011, pp. 43-49. (in Russian)

Login or Create
* Forgot password?