Habarovsk, Khabarovsk, Russian Federation
Habarovsk, Khabarovsk, Russian Federation
Habarovsk, Khabarovsk, Russian Federation
Russian Federation
The statistical analysis of annual floods (annual extremely high levels of floods) in the Amur River’s downstream for all period of instrumental observations from 1896 till 2016 has been carried out. It has been demonstrated, that the general totality of floods extreme levels has the first type of probability distribution for maximum values. Have been defined analytical expressions for probability distribution functions of levels’ general totalities for the period of intensive economic development of the Amur River basin (1961–2016), period of its small economic development (1896–1960), and for all period of water levels’ instrumental observations (1896–2016). Comparison of the Amur River basin’s small and intensive economic development periods has shown that at the intensive economic development risks of large-scale floods on the Amur River exceeding levels of 6.00 and 8.08 meters have decreased approximately two times, and these floods’ average recurrence intervals have increased approximately two times. Thus, intensive economic activity during the period from 1961 till 2016 has improved the flood situation on the Amur River. In addition, the intensive economic development of the Amur River basin has resulted in the most probable water level decrease by 0.5 meter.
hydrological phenomenon, floods, probability distribution function, goodness measure, risk of flood, time of mean return
1. Введение
Водный режим реки Амур и ее крупных притоков обладает рядом особенностей, среди которых основное место занимают часто повторяющиеся наводнения различной степени интенсивности [1].
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