Yuzhnyy nauchnyy centr RAN (otdel fiziki i astronomii, veduschiy nauchnyy sotrudnik)
Rostov-na-Donu, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation
Simferopol Technological University (Postgraduate Student)
Russian Federation
Rostov-na-Donu, Russian Federation
Based on the factor of parametric modeling specifically given system “object — factors — protection worker” the problem of determining a quantitative measure of the possible implementation options (outcomes) of the occurrence of the incident was testedby: 1) construction of parametric and logical assumptions; 2) identifying their coherence in relation to the selected occurrence, and 3) calculating possible (fuzzy) measures of the occurrence of the incident taking into account the completeness and reliability of the initial data about the system. The numerical estimation of safety parameters in practically important region of analysis is given: the impact of “less” or “much less” susceptibility. The demonstration of the possible use of parametric models “impact — attenuation — sensitivity” in the range of occurrence of apical outcomes from injury (disease) to a critical, or death is given. It is shown that the proposed method of security analysis and the calculation algorithm is standardized and can be applied to assess both integral and differential risk of complex systems.
safety, system “protection — object — environment — subject”, risk, the causal logic of the incident, fuzzy sets, logical function, parametric model “influence — susceptibility”.
1. Анализ состояния вопроса и формулировка задачи
Задача определения количественной меры происшествий в системах вида «факторы — объект — защита» рассматривалась разными учеными.
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