MOSKVA, Russian Federation
We are living in the epoch of large projects. Never before in mankind’s history there have been so many large-scale, expensive and labor-intensive projects. Implementation experience of infrastructure projects in Russia and abroad shows that the problem of cost and schedule overrun in this kind of projects is still topical and remains unsolved for the past decades. It has been shown in this paper that the final cost overrun in large-scale infrastructure projects is specific to many countries and all types of such projects. Large projects’ cost estimations for the last 70 years don´t become better.
project management, cost overrun, infrastructure projects, cost evaluation, megaprojects.
Введение
Завершить проект в рамках бюджета и вовремя — мечта каждого руководителя проектов. Тем не менее проекты чаще всего завершаются с опозданием и большим перерасходом по стоимости. Исторически так сложилось, что инфраструктурные проекты всегда страдали от превышения стоимости и сроков.
В большинстве случаев финальная стоимость проекта превышала оценки, подготовленные и официально озвученные на этапах первоначального планирования, предварительного проектирования, итогового дизайна и даже при начале строительства. С момента инициации проекта до завершения его строительства стоимость проекта может значительно измениться. Данный промежуток времени для крупных инфраструктурных проектов обычно длится несколько лет, а для технологически сложных достигает нескольких десятков лет.
Команда крупного проекта сталкивается с серьезной проблемой управления стоимостью проекта на протяжении всей его длительности. Первоначальная оценка стоимости базируется на содержании проекта, экономических условиях, учитывает интересы общества. Такая оценка должна служить опорой для команды проекта, предотвращать рост стоимости в процессе проектирования. Проект может быть выполнен в рамках бюджета, для этого в числе прочего нужна хорошая предварительная оценка стоимости, понимание факторов, которые могут повлечь ее увеличение, и дисциплина в управлении проектами.
В рамках статьи будут рассмотрены крупные инфраструктурные проекты следующих типов:
- автомагистрали;
- газопроводы и нефтепроводы;
- железные дороги;
- мосты и тоннели.
Крупный проект как объект управления
Под термином «проект» мы понимаем целенаправленное и ограниченное во времени, бюджете и прочих ресурсах мероприятие, направленное на создание уникального продукта или услуги. Говоря о крупном проекте, необходимо отметить, что границы определения здесь достаточно размыты.
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