Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2500-0535 30601 10.12737/stp-53201911 Results of current research Results of current research Results of current research Monitoring of geomagnetic disturbances using the global survey method in real time Monitoring of geomagnetic disturbances using the global survey method in real time https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1348-4708 Григорьев Владислав Георгиевич Grigoryev Vladislav Georgievich grig@ikfia.ysn.ru

кандидат физико-математических наук;

candidate of physical and mathematical sciences;

 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2343-1618 Стародубцев Сергей Анатольевич Starodubtsev Sergei Anatolyevich starodub@ikfia.ysn.ru

доктор физико-математических наук;

doctor of physical and mathematical sciences;

 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2184-8089 Гололобов Петр Юрьевич Gololobov Peter Yur'evich gpeter@ikfia.sbras.ru Институт космофизических исследований и аэрономии им. Ю.Г. Шафера СО РАН Якутск Россия Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy SB RAS Yakutsk Russian Federation Институт космофизических исследований и аэрономии им. Ю.Г. Шафера СО РАН Якутск Россия Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy SB RAS Yakutsk Russian Federation Институт космофизических исследований и аэрономии им. Ю.Г. Шафера СО РАН Якутск Россия Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy SB RAS Yakutsk Russian Federation 5 3 93 97 https://naukaru.ru/en/nauka/article/30601/view

A method for forecasting geomagnetic storms using the realization of the global survey method in real time is presented. The method is based on data from the worldwide network of neutron monitors NMDB. Using this method, we analyze the behavior of components of three-dimensional angular distribution of cosmic rays in the interplanetary medium, which were due to the first two spherical harmonics, over the period from 2013 to 2018. We have established that the main parameters that respond to the arrival of geoeffective disturbances of the interplanetary medium at Earth are changes in amplitudes of zonal (north-south) components of cosmic ray distribution. In order to select effective criteria for identifying predictors of geomagnetic disturbances and their possible temporal variations, we have made a retrospective analysis of the relationship between behaviors of the above components and geomagnetic disturbances occurring during the period of interest.

A method for forecasting geomagnetic storms using the realization of the global survey method in real time is presented. The method is based on data from the worldwide network of neutron monitors NMDB. Using this method, we analyze the behavior of components of three-dimensional angular distribution of cosmic rays in the interplanetary medium, which were due to the first two spherical harmonics, over the period from 2013 to 2018. We have established that the main parameters that respond to the arrival of geoeffective disturbances of the interplanetary medium at Earth are changes in amplitudes of zonal (north-south) components of cosmic ray distribution. In order to select effective criteria for identifying predictors of geomagnetic disturbances and their possible temporal variations, we have made a retrospective analysis of the relationship between behaviors of the above components and geomagnetic disturbances occurring during the period of interest.

 cosmic rays neutron monitor global survey geomagnetic storms zonal components predictors cosmic rays neutron monitor global survey geomagnetic storms zonal components predictors

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