Tula, Tula, Russian Federation
Tula, Tula, Russian Federation
The paper is devoted to forecasting the prospects for the development of a deep eco-nomic crisis in the world economy. By constructing econometric models it is shown that the economic crisis known as the Great Depression, which broke out in the third decade of the 20th century, may be associated with the beginning of the formation of the next large (technological) cycle of economic activity – the N.D. Kondratiev cycle. Based on the constructed models, a forecast is given for the development of crises in the economies of the USA, China and India in the 21st century. It is shown that crises in the economies of China and India may occur simultaneously, which may initiate a deep global economic crisis. An analysis of the relationship between the economic dynamics of the largest countries in terms of national production shows that the economies of India and China are closely linked to the economies of the USA, Germany and France. The close relationship between the economies of India and China and the economies of the USA, Germany and France allows us to believe that the crisis in India and China will entail a crisis in the USA, Germany and France. The crisis in the economy of the five largest countries in terms of national production can cause a global economic crisis, which can be considered the Great Depression of the 21st century. This crisis can least affect England and Russia. The results of the study suggest the possibility of the Great Depression of the 21st century in the late 2020s, early 2030s.
crises, Kondratiev cycles, China, India, econometric models, forecasts
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