Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics Солнечно-земная физика / Solnechno-Zemnaya Fizika / Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2712-9640 96013 10.12737/szf-113202509 ДВАДЦАТАЯ ЕЖЕГОДНАЯ КОНФЕРЕНЦИЯ «ФИЗИКА ПЛАЗМЫ В СОЛНЕЧНОЙ СИСТЕМЕ», 10–14 ФЕВРАЛЯ 2025 Г., ИНСТИТУТ КОСМИЧЕСКИХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЙ РАН, МОСКВА, РОССИЯ 20TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE “PLASMA PHYSICS IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM”. FEBRUARY 10–14, 2025, SPACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE RAS, MOSCOW, RUSSIA ДВАДЦАТАЯ ЕЖЕГОДНАЯ КОНФЕРЕНЦИЯ «ФИЗИКА ПЛАЗМЫ В СОЛНЕЧНОЙ СИСТЕМЕ», 10–14 ФЕВРАЛЯ 2025 Г., ИНСТИТУТ КОСМИЧЕСКИХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЙ РАН, МОСКВА, РОССИЯ Prediction of electron fluxes in a circular polar orbit: Selection of predictors Прогнозирование потоков электронов на круговой полярной орбите: отбор предикторов Белова Анастасия Олеговна Belova Anastasiya Olegovna belova.ao20@physics.msu.ru Мягкова Ирина Николаевна Myagkova Irina Nikolaevna

кандидат физико-математических наук;

candidate of physical and mathematical sciences;

 Московский государственный университет имени М.В.Ломоносова Lomonosov Moscow State University Научно-исследовательский институт ядерной физики имени Д. В. Скобельцына Москва Россия D.V. Skobeltsyn Scientific Research Institute of Nuclear Physics Moscow Russian Federation 22 09 2025 22 09 2025 11 3 77 87 10 03 2025 21 07 2025 https://naukaru.ru/en/nauka/article/96013/view

Исследовалась связь вариаций потоков электронов с энергиями >0.7 и >2 МэВ внешнего радиационного пояса Земли на круговой полярной орбите с параметрами солнечного ветра и межпланетного магнитного поля, а также с геомагнитными индексами и логарифмом потока электронов внешнего радиационного пояса Земли на геостационарной орбите с целью выяснения возможности их прогнозирования. Был проведен отбор оптимальных входных признаков при прогнозировании потоков электронов на низких полярных орбитах, что актуально в рамках обеспечения радиационной безопасности будущих космических миссий. Рассматривались интегральные и максимальные потоки электронов указанных энергий за сутки. На основе линейной регрессии получены прогнозы с горизонтом 1 и 2 дня на интервале 2 месяца 2020 г. для максимальных и интегральных потоков за сутки.

We have investigated the relationship of variations in >0.7 and >2 MeV electron fluxes of Earth's outer radiation belt in a circular polar orbit with solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters, as well as with geomagnetic indices and the logarithmic electron flux in the geostationary orbit in order to explore the possibility of predicting them. We have selected the optimal input features for predicting electron fluxes in low polar orbits, which is important for ensuring the radiation safety of future space missions. We have examined integral and maximum electron fluxes of these energies over the span of a day. We have obtained forecasts with a horizon of 1 and 2 days for an interval of 2 months in 2020 for daily maximum and integral fluxes based on linear regression.

 радиационные пояса Земли потоки релятивистских электронов прогнозирование машинное обучение круговая полярная орбита Earth’s radiation belts relativistic electron fluxes forecasting machine learning circular polar orbit Исследование выполнено за счет гранта Российского научного фонда № 22-62-00048, [https://rscf.ru/ project/22-62-00048/] The work was financially supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Grant No. 22-62-00048) [https://rscf.ru/project/22-62-00048/]

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