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 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Scientific Research and Development. Economics</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="en">Scientific Research and Development. Economics</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Научные исследования и разработки. Экономика</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn publication-format="online">2587-9111</issn>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">53222</article-id>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.12737/2587-9111-2022-10-5-13-17</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>Экономическая теория</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
     <subject>Economic theory</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group>
     <subject>Экономическая теория</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">Kondratieff Cycles in the Economy of India and China</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Циклы Кондратьева в экономике Индии и Китая</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group content-type="authors">
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Басовская</surname>
       <given-names>Е. Н.</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Basovskaya</surname>
       <given-names>Elena Nikolaevna</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>basovskaya.elena@mail.ru</email>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>кандидат экономических наук;</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>candidate of economic sciences;</p>
     </bio>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Басовский</surname>
       <given-names>Л. Е.</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Basovskiy</surname>
       <given-names>Leonid Efimovich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>basovskiy@mail.ru</email>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>доктор технических наук;</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>doctor of technical sciences;</p>
     </bio>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Тульский государственный  педагогический университет им. Л.Н. Толстого</institution>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Leo Tolstoy Tula State Pedagogical University</institution>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <pub-date publication-format="print" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2022-10-14T13:34:27+03:00">
    <day>14</day>
    <month>10</month>
    <year>2022</year>
   </pub-date>
   <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2022-10-14T13:34:27+03:00">
    <day>14</day>
    <month>10</month>
    <year>2022</year>
   </pub-date>
   <volume>10</volume>
   <issue>5</issue>
   <fpage>13</fpage>
   <lpage>17</lpage>
   <history>
    <date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2022-09-29T00:00:00+03:00">
     <day>29</day>
     <month>09</month>
     <year>2022</year>
    </date>
   </history>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://naukaru.ru/en/nauka/article/53222/view">https://naukaru.ru/en/nauka/article/53222/view</self-uri>
   <abstract xml:lang="ru">
    <p>Определены циклы Кондратьева в экономике Индии и Китая. Использованы временные ряды реального душевого ВВП. Исследование выполнено путём построения эконометрических моделей, включающих циклическую составляющую. Моделирование позволило установить циклы Кондратьева в национальном производстве и дать периодизацию циклов Кондратьева в национальном производстве Индии и Китая. Повышательная полуволна четвёртого цикла Кондратьева в Индии возникла в 1984 году, в Китае – в 1964 году. Повышательную полу-волну пятого цикла Кондратьева в Индии ожидать в 2032 году. Повышательная полуволна пятого цикла Кондратьева в Китае возникла в 2010 году. В Индии в настоящее время преобладает четвёртый технологический уклад, переход к доминирования пятого технологического уклада можно ожидать в 2032 году. В Китае в настоящее время преобладает пятый технологический уклад. &#13;
Можно считать обоснованным возможность лидерства в мировой экономике Китая. Основания предполагать возможность прохода Индии к лидерства в мировой экономике в середине XXI века недостаточно.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>The Kondratieff cycles in the economy of India and China are determined. We used time series of real per capita GNP. The study carried out by constructing econo-metric models that include a cyclical component. Modeling made it possible to establish the Kondratyev cycles in the national production and give the periodization of the Kon-dratyev cycles in the national production of India and China. The upward half-wave of the fourth Kondratieff cycle appeared in India in 1984 and in China in 1964. An up-ward half-wave of the fifth Kondratyev cycle in India expected in 2032. The upward half-wave of the fifth Kondratyev cycle in China occurred in 2010. India currently dominated by the fourth technological; the transition to the dominance of the fifth tech-nological order can be expected in 2032. China currently dominated by the fifth techno-logical order. It be considered justified the possibility of leadership in the world econo-my of China. There is not enough reason to assume the possibility of India's passage to leadership in the world economy in the middle of the 21st century.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>национальное производство</kwd>
    <kwd>циклы Кондратьева</kwd>
    <kwd>уклады</kwd>
    <kwd>эконометрические модели</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>national production</kwd>
    <kwd>Kondratieff cycles</kwd>
    <kwd>structure</kwd>
    <kwd>econometric models</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
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