Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2500-0535 48956 10.12737/stp-82202213 17th Annual Conference “Plasma Physics in the Solar System”. February 7–11, 2022, Space Research Institute RAS, Moscow, Russia 17th Annual Conference “Plasma Physics in the Solar System”. February 7–11, 2022, Space Research Institute RAS, Moscow, Russia 17th Annual Conference “Plasma Physics in the Solar System”. February 7–11, 2022, Space Research Institute RAS, Moscow, Russia Interactive computer model for aurora forecast and analysis Interactive computer model for aurora forecast and analysis Воробьев Андрей Владимирович Vorobev Andrey Vladimirovich geomagnet@list.ru https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6476-9471 Соловьёв Анатолий Александрович Soloviev Anatoly Aleksandrovich rjes@wdcb.ru

доктор физико-математических наук;

doctor of physical and mathematical sciences;

 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3056-7465 Пилипенко Вячеслав Анатольевич Pilipenko Vyacheslav Anatolievich space.soliton@gmail.com

доктор физико-математических наук;

doctor of physical and mathematical sciences;

 Воробьева Гульнара Равильевна Vorobeva Gulnara Ravilevna gulnara.vorobeva@gmail.com Геофизический центр РАН Москва Россия Geophysical Center RAS Moscow Russian Federation Уфимский университет науки и технологий Уфа Россия Ufa University of Science and Technology Ufa Russian Federation Геофизический центр РАН Москва Россия Geophysical Center RAS Moscow Russian Federation Институт физики Земли им. О.Ю. Шмидта РАН Москва Россия Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, RAS Moscow Russian Federation Институт физики Земли им. О.Ю. Шмидта РАН Москва Россия Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS Moscow Russian Federation Геофизический центр РАН Москва Россия Geophysical Center RAS Moscow Russian Federation Институт космических исследований Москва Россия Space Research Institute Moscow Russian Federation Уфимский университет науки и технологий Уфа Россия Ufa University of Science and Technology Ufa Russian Federation 30 06 2022 30 06 2022 8 2 84 90 17 02 2022 23 05 2022 https://naukaru.ru/en/nauka/article/48956/view

An interactive computer model of a short-term (with a horizon 30–70 min) forecast of aurora intensity has been developed in the form of a web-based geoinformation system. The OVATION-Prime empirical model is used as the basic software, which establishes statistical relationships between parameters of the solar wind, the interplanetary magnetic field, and auroral particle fluxes. On the basis of this model, a system has been built which simulates the spatial planetary distribution of the probability of observing auroras and a number of accompanying quantities. Data visualization is carried out on the basis of the virtual globe technology and is provided to the end user via a specialized web service. The forecast has been verified by comparing the model predictions with the data from 16 cameras conducting continuous observations of the auroras in the visible spectrum. The proportion of coincidences between the predicted and observed auroras was 86 %. The developed service enables both forecasting and analysis of past events. The system allows us to compare the spatial distribution of probability of auroras with railway transport systems for the territory of the Russian Federation.

An interactive computer model of a short-term (with a horizon 30–70 min) forecast of aurora intensity has been developed in the form of a web-based geoinformation system. The OVATION-Prime empirical model is used as the basic software, which establishes statistical relationships between parameters of the solar wind, the interplanetary magnetic field, and auroral particle fluxes. On the basis of this model, a system has been built which simulates the spatial planetary distribution of the probability of observing auroras and a number of accompanying quantities. Data visualization is carried out on the basis of the virtual globe technology and is provided to the end user via a specialized web service. The forecast has been verified by comparing the model predictions with the data from 16 cameras conducting continuous observations of the auroras in the visible spectrum. The proportion of coincidences between the predicted and observed auroras was 86 %. The developed service enables both forecasting and analysis of past events. The system allows us to compare the spatial distribution of probability of auroras with railway transport systems for the territory of the Russian Federation.

 auroras magnetic storms auroral zone space weather geoinformation system auroras magnetic storms auroral zone space weather geoinformation system The study was financially supported by RSF (project No. 21-77-30010) The study was financially supported by RSF (project No. 21-77-30010)

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