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 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Scientific Research and Development. Russian Journal of Project Management</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="en">Scientific Research and Development. Russian Journal of Project Management</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Научные исследования и разработки. Российский журнал управления проектами</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn publication-format="online">2587-6279</issn>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">31</article-id>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.12737/98</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>Проекты в отраслях и опыт компаний</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
     <subject>Projects in branches and companies’ experience</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group>
     <subject>Проекты в отраслях и опыт компаний</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">Risk analysis of oil and gas projects: possible problems, approaches to solving</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Анализ рисков нефтегазовых проектов: возможные проблемы, подходы к решению</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group content-type="authors">
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Демкин</surname>
       <given-names>И. В.</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Demkin</surname>
       <given-names>Igor Vyacheslavovich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>i.demkin@mail.ru</email>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>доктор экономических наук;</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>doctor of economic sciences;</p>
     </bio>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Лесных</surname>
       <given-names>Валерий Витальевич</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Lesnykh</surname>
       <given-names>Valeriy Витальевич</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>vvlesnykh@gmail.com</email>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Общество с ограниченной ответственностью «НИИгазэкономика»</institution>
     <city>Москва</city>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">LLC «NIIgazeconomika»</institution>
     <city>Moscow</city>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <pub-date publication-format="print" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="1905-05-05T18:35:44+02:30">
    <day>05</day>
    <month>05</month>
    <year>1905</year>
   </pub-date>
   <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="1905-05-05T18:35:44+02:30">
    <day>05</day>
    <month>05</month>
    <year>1905</year>
   </pub-date>
   <volume>1</volume>
   <issue>1</issue>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://naukaru.ru/en/nauka/article/31/view">https://naukaru.ru/en/nauka/article/31/view</self-uri>
   <abstract xml:lang="ru">
    <p>Рассматриваются научные проблемы анализа и мониторинга рисков нефтегазовых проектов. Показаны основные возможные подходы к их решению. Отталкиваясь от существующих стандартов управления рисками, а также используя собственный практический опыт анализа рисков ряда крупных нефтегазовых проектов, авторы пришли к выводу о целесообразности разработки и внедрения в нефтегазовой компании методологии анализа и мониторинга проектных рисков, основанной на экономико-математическом моделировании.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>We consider the problems of scientific analysis and risk monitoring of oil and gas projects. The basic possible approaches to solve them are shown. Based on existing standards of risk management, as well as using personal practical experience of risk analysis of several major oil and gas projects, the authors concluded the feasibility of developing and implementing in the methodology of analysis and monitoring of project risks, based on the economic-mathematical modeling.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>проектный риск; мониторинг; анализ и управление; нефтегазовый проект; модель.</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>project risk; monitoring and management; oil and gas project; model.</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
 <body>
  <p>Нефтегазовые инвестиционные проекты характеризуются следующими особенностями:огромные капитальные затраты (речь идет о миллиардах, а в ряде случаев и о десятках миллиардов долларов США);длительный жизненный цикл (с момента принятия инвестиционного решения до завершения проекта фазой ликвидации проходят десятилетия);высокая важность проектов, их нацеленность на достижение значимых целей компаний1;высокая подверженность рискам различной природы. Как следствие необходимость управления, в том числе и специфическими рисками2 с учетом зависимости интенсивности влияния и состава рисковых факторов от времени (фазы проектного цикла);международный характер многих нефтегазовых проектов и, как следствие, необходимость согласования их параметров различными участниками3.Указанные особенности накладывают отпечаток на управление нефтегазовыми проектами и в том числе на анализ и управление проектными рисками. Например, результаты ранжирования рисков нефтегазовых проектов привязаны к этапам проектного цикла (на начальных этапах проектного цикла значимыми, как правило, являются организационные, технологические и геологические риски; на эксплуатационном этапе значимыми могут быть рыночные риски, в том числе риски снижения цен на энергоресурсы, а также техногенные и природно-климатические риски). Длительный жизненный цикл нефтегазовых проектов, а также их подверженность рискам различной природы делают актуальной оценку их эффективности с использованием моделей денежных потоков, аварийных процессов, а в ряде случаев и реальных опционов, с обязательным учетом временнóго и рисковых факторов [2, 22]._____________________1 Например, реализация проекта комплексного освоения Штокмановского газоконденсатного месторождения (ГКМ) позволит ОАО «Газпром» достичь ряда важнейших для компании стратегических целей. К одной из них относится диверсификация направлений поставок энергоносителей за счет производства и реализации сжиженного природного газа (СПГ).2 К специфическим рискам, т.е. рискам, присущим именно нефте-газовым проектам, можно отнести, например геологические риски.3 Например, необходимость согласований параметров 1-й фазы проекта комплексного освоения Штокмановского ГКМ объясняется различными подходами участников проекта к выбору площадки размещения объектов общей инфраструктуры (порт, хранилища СПГ).</p>
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