Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov (Department of Socio-Cultural Design and Development of Territories, professor)
Moskva, Moscow, Russian Federation
UDC 336
The relevance of this study is determined by the fact that in recent years, the Russian Federation has undergone significant changes in the state financial policy, primarily related to the increasing fiscal burden on businesses and citizens. In this regard, forecasting the key indicators of the federal budget of the Russian Federation is of interest. The objective of this study is to develop forecast models for assessing the key indicators of the federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2026. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in: a model-based estimate of the shortfall coefficient, reflecting the share of potential revenues lost by the budget due to tax evasion and/or reduction of the taxable base; a model-based description, within the framework of assessing the short-term tax multiplier (taking into account identification restrictions), of an identification strategy for assessing GDP dynamics as a function of the share of tax revenues in GDP, the inflation rate, and the price of Brent crude oil; and the construction of an analytical version of Hernando de Soto's detailed "vicious circle" model of the shadow economy as applied to the Russian Federation. In constructing a panel regression of the impact of the VAT rate on retail turnover (both in terms of descriptive analysis and in terms of identification restrictions). The practical significance of the obtained results lies in their potential use in improving state tax policy to stimulate national economic development.
predictive modeling, dynamics, key indicators, federal budget, Russian Federation, 2026
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