Scientific substantiation of indicators characterizing the achievement of adaptation goals to climate change in forests of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation
Rubrics: NATURE MANAGEMENT
Authors:
Type:
Article
Pages:
from 148
to 165
Status:
Published
Received:
01.08.2025
Accepted:
15.09.2025
Published:
25.09.2025
Subject area:
UDC 630
Language:
Russian
Keywords:
forest adaptation measures, climate policy, forest ecosystems, forest planning, forest sector of the economy, forest management, indicators for achieving adaptation goals, carbon cycle
Funding:
the work was carried out within the framework of the state assignment for applied scientific research dated 26.12.2024 No. 053-00005-25-00 «Development of a system for planning, implementing and assessing the effectiveness of state climate policy measures in the forest sector of the Russian Federation» (first stage).
Abstract (English):
In the context of anthropogenic climate change characterized by a sustained increase in average annual tem-peratures, transformation of precipitation patterns and more frequent extreme weather events, forest ecosystems in Russia are facing increasing pressure. This study aims to develop an integrated scientific-methodological approach for assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity of forests as well as quantitatively determining the effectiveness of im-plemented adaptation measures. The methodological basis of this work included systems analysis encompassing examination of current legal regulations on forestry-climate policy, content analysis of strategic and operational planning documents, statistical analysis of data from the state forest register and industry reports, along with synthesis of scientific research on the impact of climatic factors on forests. As a result of the conducted research, key climate risks for Russian forestry were systematized based on region-al natural-ecological characteristics. A hierarchical indicator system was developed for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation measures. This system integrates an integral index reflecting overall dynamics of forest cover and a set of specific metrics that quantitatively characterize changes in individual risk components such as productivity, species composition, fire hazard, phytosanitary threats, and consequences of extreme weather phenome-na. For each indicator, clear sources of primary data have been identified within official reporting forms, ensuring methodological consistency, verifiability, and comparability of results at all levels of management. The necessity of applying this proposed system is justified for transitioning from qualitative assessments to quantitative cost-benefit analyses and evaluation of overall effectiveness of adaptation policies in the forestry sector. Implementation of the developed approach into practical forest planning and monitoring will enhance evi-dence-based decision-making, objectify industry reporting, and optimize resource allocation for activities aimed at enhancing resilience and preserving ecosystem functions of forests under changing climatic conditions.
In the context of anthropogenic climate change characterized by a sustained increase in average annual tem-peratures, transformation of precipitation patterns and more frequent extreme weather events, forest ecosystems in Russia are facing increasing pressure. This study aims to develop an integrated scientific-methodological approach for assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity of forests as well as quantitatively determining the effectiveness of im-plemented adaptation measures. The methodological basis of this work included systems analysis encompassing examination of current legal regulations on forestry-climate policy, content analysis of strategic and operational planning documents, statistical analysis of data from the state forest register and industry reports, along with synthesis of scientific research on the impact of climatic factors on forests. As a result of the conducted research, key climate risks for Russian forestry were systematized based on region-al natural-ecological characteristics. A hierarchical indicator system was developed for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation measures. This system integrates an integral index reflecting overall dynamics of forest cover and a set of specific metrics that quantitatively characterize changes in individual risk components such as productivity, species composition, fire hazard, phytosanitary threats, and consequences of extreme weather phenome-na. For each indicator, clear sources of primary data have been identified within official reporting forms, ensuring methodological consistency, verifiability, and comparability of results at all levels of management. The necessity of applying this proposed system is justified for transitioning from qualitative assessments to quantitative cost-benefit analyses and evaluation of overall effectiveness of adaptation policies in the forestry sector. Implementation of the developed approach into practical forest planning and monitoring will enhance evi-dence-based decision-making, objectify industry reporting, and optimize resource allocation for activities aimed at enhancing resilience and preserving ecosystem functions of forests under changing climatic conditions.
Keywords:
forest adaptation measures, climate policy, forest ecosystems, forest planning, forest sector of the economy, forest management, indicators for achieving adaptation goals, carbon cycle
forest adaptation measures, climate policy, forest ecosystems, forest planning, forest sector of the economy, forest management, indicators for achieving adaptation goals, carbon cycle
