Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2500-0535 103592 10.12737/stp-113202509 20TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE “PLASMA PHYSICS IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM”. FEBRUARY 10–14, 2025, SPACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE RAS, MOSCOW, RUSSIA 20TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE “PLASMA PHYSICS IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM”. FEBRUARY 10–14, 2025, SPACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE RAS, MOSCOW, RUSSIA 20TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE “PLASMA PHYSICS IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM”. FEBRUARY 10–14, 2025, SPACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE RAS, MOSCOW, RUSSIA Prediction of electron fluxes in a circular polar orbit: Selection of predictors Prediction of electron fluxes in a circular polar orbit: Selection of predictors Белова Анастасия Олеговна Belova Anastasiya Olegovna belova.ao20@physics.msu.ru Мягкова Ирина Николаевна Myagkova Irina Nikolaevna

кандидат физико-математических наук;

candidate of physical and mathematical sciences;

 Московский государственный университет имени М.В.Ломоносова Lomonosov Moscow State University Научно-исследовательский институт ядерной физики имени Д. В. Скобельцына Москва Россия D.V. Skobeltsyn Scientific Research Institute of Nuclear Physics Moscow Russian Federation 22 09 2025 22 09 2025 11 3 70 79 10 03 2025 21 07 2025 https://naukaru.ru/en/nauka/article/103592/view

We have investigated the relationship of variations in >0.7 and >2 MeV electron fluxes of Earth's outer radiation belt in a circular polar orbit with solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters, as well as with geomagnetic indices and the logarithmic electron flux in the geostationary orbit in order to explore the possibility of predicting them. We have selected the optimal input features for predicting electron fluxes in low polar orbits, which is important for ensuring the radiation safety of future space missions. We have examined integral and maximum electron fluxes of these energies over the span of a day. We have obtained forecasts with a horizon of 1 and 2 days for an interval of 2 months in 2020 for daily maximum and integral fluxes based on linear regression.

We have investigated the relationship of variations in >0.7 and >2 MeV electron fluxes of Earth's outer radiation belt in a circular polar orbit with solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters, as well as with geomagnetic indices and the logarithmic electron flux in the geostationary orbit in order to explore the possibility of predicting them. We have selected the optimal input features for predicting electron fluxes in low polar orbits, which is important for ensuring the radiation safety of future space missions. We have examined integral and maximum electron fluxes of these energies over the span of a day. We have obtained forecasts with a horizon of 1 and 2 days for an interval of 2 months in 2020 for daily maximum and integral fluxes based on linear regression.

 Earth’s radiation belts relativistic electron fluxes forecasting machine learning circular polar orbit Earth’s radiation belts relativistic electron fluxes forecasting machine learning circular polar orbit The work was financially supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Grant No. 22-62-00048) [https://rscf.ru/project/22-62-00048/] The work was financially supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Grant No. 22-62-00048) [https://rscf.ru/project/22-62-00048/]

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